Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsMLB Analytics

First Inning Run Predictions

League base rate: NRFI has hit 48% of the last 398 games (30d).

How this score has actually done

Our Strong NRFI tier has hit 52.5% across 59 graded games, against a league base rate of 48%. Full record by tier.

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13 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run

Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather

2
Strong NRFI
2
Lean NRFI
7
Toss-up
2
Lean YRFI
0
Strong YRFI
LADLADatSFSF
O/U 7.5
4:05 PM
Oracle ParkPF 0.9252°FLAD NRFI 73%SF NRFI 50%
Blake Snell
AwayBlake Snell
ERA
1.86
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.09
K/9
12.1
Matt Wilkinson
HomeMatt Wilkinson
ERA
3.65
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.01
K/9
6.6
78
Strong NRFI
  • Blake Snell has elite ERA (1.86) — strong NRFI signal
  • LAD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
  • Pitcher-friendly weather: Partly Cloudy, 52°F — suppresses offense
NRFI-135
YRFI+100
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ATLATLatMIAMIA
O/U 8.5
4:10 PM
LoanDepot ParkPF 0.91Retractable80°FATL NRFI 75%MIA NRFI 88%
Brent Suter
AwayBrent Suter
ERA
3.48
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.25
K/9
7.7
Jack Ralston
HomeJack Ralston
ERA
4.50
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.25
K/9
9.6
77
Strong NRFI
  • ATL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 75% of games (30/40)
  • MIA batters held scoreless in 1st inning 88% of games (35/40)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.91) supports NRFI
NRFI+110
YRFI-150
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PITPITatDETDET
O/U 9
1:10 PM
Comerica ParkPF 0.9658°FPIT NRFI 72%DET NRFI 66%
Kirby Yates
AwayKirby Yates
ERA
3.32
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.20
K/9
10.6
Justin Verlander
HomeJustin Verlander
ERA
12.27
1st Inn
—
WHIP
2.18
K/9
2.5
62
Lean NRFI
  • PIT batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
  • Justin Verlander — limited innings pitched, ERA unreliable
  • Elevated game total (9) — more run potential
NRFI+130
YRFI-180
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TEXTEXatMINMIN
O/U 8
4:10 PM
Target FieldPF 1.0160°F10mphTEX NRFI 73%MIN NRFI 59%
Nathan Eovaldi
AwayNathan Eovaldi
ERA
4.27
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.21
K/9
9.0
Bailey Ober
HomeBailey Ober
ERA
4.21
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.26
K/9
6.5
59
Toss-up
  • TEX batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
NRFI+115
YRFI-155
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NYMNYMatWSHWSH
O/U 8.5
12:35 PM
Nationals ParkPF 0.9967°F14mphNYM NRFI 62%WSH NRFI 85%
Jonah Tong
AwayJonah Tong
ERA
4.21
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.32
K/9
8.8
Connelly Early
HomeConnelly Early
ERA
3.44
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.25
K/9
9.1
58
Toss-up
  • WSH batters held scoreless in 1st inning 85% of games (33/39)
  • WSH batting lineup scores 5.1 R/G — high 1st inning threat
NRFI+105
YRFI-140
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CLECLEatKCKC
O/U 8.5
7:10 PM
Kauffman StadiumPF 0.9767°F12mphCLE NRFI 65%KC NRFI 62%
Tanner Bibee
AwayTanner Bibee
ERA
4.35
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.22
K/9
7.0
Michael Wacha
HomeMichael Wacha
ERA
3.33
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.11
K/9
7.1
55
Toss-up
NRFI+120
YRFI-165
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LAALAAatSEASEA
O/U 7
9:40 PM
T-Mobile ParkPF 0.95Retractable45°FLAA NRFI 70%SEA NRFI 60%
Ryan Johnson
AwayRyan Johnson
ERA
4.93
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.35
K/9
7.2
Kade Anderson
HomeKade Anderson
ERA
4.18
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.21
K/9
7.8
55
Toss-up
  • LAA batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
  • Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
  • Ryan Johnson ERA 4.93 — elevated run risk
NRFI+115
YRFI-155
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STLSTLatMILMIL
O/U 7.5
7:10 PM
American Family FieldPF 1.02Retractable59°FSTL NRFI 73%MIL NRFI 65%
Quinn Mathews
AwayQuinn Mathews
ERA
3.65
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.38
K/9
7.9
Dustin May
HomeDustin May
ERA
4.67
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.32
K/9
8.8
46
Toss-up
  • Dustin May ERA 4.67 — elevated run risk
  • MIL batting lineup scores 5.1 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • STL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
NRFI+125
YRFI-170
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HOUHOUatOAKOAK
O/U 9.5
9:40 PM
Sutter Health Park (Athletics, West Sacramento)PF 1.0054°FHOU NRFI 64%OAK NRFI 70%
Hayden Wesneski
AwayHayden Wesneski
ERA
3.50
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.15
K/9
6.8
Jack Perkins
HomeJack Perkins
ERA
5.90
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.45
K/9
10.2
42
Toss-up
  • Jack Perkins ERA 5.90 — elevated run risk
  • Elevated game total (9.5) — more run potential
  • OAK batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
NRFI+115
YRFI-155
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CINCINatTORTOR
O/U 8
3:07 PM
Rogers CentrePF 1.03Retractable62°F8mphCIN NRFI 74%TOR NRFI 67%
Rhett Lowder
AwayRhett Lowder
ERA
6.01
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.55
K/9
7.1
Trey Yesavage
HomeTrey Yesavage
ERA
3.67
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.13
K/9
8.8
39
Lean YRFI
  • Rhett Lowder ERA 6.01 — elevated run risk
  • Rhett Lowder high WHIP (1.55) means more baserunners
  • CIN batters held scoreless in 1st inning 74% of games (31/42)
NRFI+150
YRFI-205
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COLCOLatCHWCHW
O/U 8
7:10 PM
Guaranteed Rate FieldPF 1.0460°FCOL NRFI 78%CHW NRFI 64%
Jose Quintana
AwayJose Quintana
ERA
5.40
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.51
K/9
4.4
Davis Martin
HomeDavis Martin
ERA
3.84
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.29
K/9
7.5
32
Lean YRFI
  • Jose Quintana ERA 5.40 — elevated run risk
  • Jose Quintana high WHIP (1.51) means more baserunners
  • COL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (31/40)
NRFI+120
YRFI-165
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TBTBatPHIPHI
O/U 7
7:15 PM
Citizens Bank ParkPF 1.0658°F15mphTB NRFI 73%PHI NRFI 69%
Griffin Jax
AwayGriffin Jax
ERA
3.62
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.19
K/9
9.5
TBD
HomeTBD
62.6
Lean NRFI
  • TB batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (30/41)
  • Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
  • Pitcher-friendly weather: Rain, 58°F — suppresses offense
  • Rain — wet conditions favor pitchers
  • Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
NRFI+100
YRFI-140
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ARIARIatSDSD
O/U 7.5
8:40 PM
Petco ParkPF 0.9365°FARI NRFI 74%SD NRFI 72%
TBD
AwayTBD
Walker Buehler
HomeWalker Buehler
ERA
4.56
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.34
K/9
7.7
59.8
Toss-up
  • ARI batters held scoreless in 1st inning 74% of games (29/39)
  • SD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.93) supports NRFI
  • Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
  • Walker Buehler ERA 4.56 — elevated run risk
NRFI+135
YRFI-185
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