Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsMLB Analytics

First Inning Run Predictions

League base rate: NRFI has hit 48% of the last 404 games (30d).

How this score has actually done

Our Strong NRFI tier has hit 52.5% across 61 graded games, against a league base rate of 48.3%. Full record by tier.

Ask Bobby

15 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run

Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather

2
Strong NRFI
4
Lean NRFI
6
Toss-up
2
Lean YRFI
1
Strong YRFI
TBTBatPHIPHI
O/U 6.5
3:05 PM
Citizens Bank ParkPF 1.0659°F17mphTB NRFI 71%PHI NRFI 69%
Nick Martinez
AwayNick Martinez
ERA
2.94
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.07
K/9
5.5
Zack Wheeler
HomeZack Wheeler
ERA
3.06
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.06
K/9
10.8
90
Strong NRFI
  • Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Nick Martinez 2.94, Zack Wheeler 3.06) — strong NRFI
  • TB batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (29/41)
  • Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
  • Pitcher-friendly weather: Drizzle, 59°F — suppresses offense
  • Drizzle — wet conditions favor pitchers
NRFI+120
YRFI-165
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STLSTLatMILMIL
O/U 7
3:10 PM
American Family FieldPF 1.02Retractable56°FSTL NRFI 73%MIL NRFI 65%
Andre Pallante
AwayAndre Pallante
ERA
3.61
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.24
K/9
6.1
Jacob Misiorowski
HomeJacob Misiorowski
ERA
1.86
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.80
K/9
13.1
77
Strong NRFI
  • Jacob Misiorowski has elite ERA (1.86) — strong NRFI signal
  • STL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
  • Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
NRFI+125
YRFI-170
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ARIARIatSDSD
O/U 8
3:10 PM
Petco ParkPF 0.9372°FARI NRFI 77%SD NRFI 69%
Michael Soroka
AwayMichael Soroka
ERA
3.31
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.09
K/9
8.9
Randy Vásquez
HomeRandy Vásquez
ERA
4.01
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.30
K/9
5.7
70
Lean NRFI
  • ARI batters held scoreless in 1st inning 77% of games (30/39)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.93) supports NRFI
NRFI+110
YRFI-150
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CLECLEatKCKC
O/U 8.5
3:10 PM
Kauffman StadiumPF 0.9768°FCLE NRFI 68%KC NRFI 59%
Parker Messick
AwayParker Messick
ERA
2.55
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.04
K/9
9.4
Daniel Lynch IV
HomeDaniel Lynch IV
ERA
4.13
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.14
K/9
6.0
65
Lean NRFI
  • Parker Messick has elite ERA (2.55) — strong NRFI signal
NRFI+100
YRFI-135
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PITPITatDETDET
O/U 8
3:10 PM
Comerica ParkPF 0.9662°FPIT NRFI 72%DET NRFI 68%
Jared Jones
AwayJared Jones
ERA
3.87
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.12
K/9
10.9
River Ryan
HomeRiver Ryan
ERA
0.00
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.00
K/9
9.0
62
Lean NRFI
  • PIT batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (28/39)
  • River Ryan — limited innings pitched, ERA unreliable
NRFI+105
YRFI-140
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ATLATLatMIAMIA
O/U 8.5
3:10 PM
LoanDepot ParkPF 0.91Retractable81°FATL NRFI 73%MIA NRFI 88%
JR Ritchie
AwayJR Ritchie
ERA
4.79
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.46
K/9
8.8
Janson Junk
HomeJanson Junk
ERA
4.31
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.31
K/9
6.3
60
Lean NRFI
  • ATL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
  • MIA batters held scoreless in 1st inning 88% of games (35/40)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.91) supports NRFI
  • JR Ritchie ERA 4.79 — elevated run risk
NRFI+115
YRFI-160
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LAALAAatSEASEA
O/U 7
3:10 PM
T-Mobile ParkPF 0.95Retractable47°FLAA NRFI 70%SEA NRFI 63%
Yusei Kikuchi
AwayYusei Kikuchi
ERA
4.88
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.55
K/9
8.6
Logan Gilbert
HomeLogan Gilbert
ERA
3.81
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.10
K/9
9.7
53
Toss-up
  • LAA batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
  • Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
  • Yusei Kikuchi ERA 4.88 — elevated run risk
  • Yusei Kikuchi high WHIP (1.55) means more baserunners
NRFI+110
YRFI-155
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BALBALatNYYNYY
O/U 7.5
1:05 PM
Yankee StadiumPF 1.0759°F19mphBAL NRFI 75%NYY NRFI 78%
Shane Baz
AwayShane Baz
ERA
4.11
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.35
K/9
7.7
Elmer Rodríguez
HomeElmer Rodríguez
ERA
5.40
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.58
K/9
7.1
51
Toss-up
  • BAL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 75% of games (30/40)
  • NYY batters held scoreless in 1st inning 78% of games (32/41)
  • Pitcher-friendly weather: Drizzle, 59°F — suppresses offense
  • Drizzle — wet conditions favor pitchers
  • Elmer Rodríguez ERA 5.40 — elevated run risk
  • Elmer Rodríguez high WHIP (1.58) means more baserunners
NRFI+120
YRFI-165
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NYMNYMatWSHWSH
O/U 8
1:05 PM
Nationals ParkPF 0.9962°FNYM NRFI 62%WSH NRFI 85%
Sean Manaea
AwaySean Manaea
ERA
4.67
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.30
K/9
8.8
DJ Herz
HomeDJ Herz
ERA
9.00
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.75
K/9
9.0
47
Toss-up
  • Sean Manaea ERA 4.67 — elevated run risk
  • WSH batting lineup scores 5.1 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • DJ Herz — limited innings pitched, ERA unreliable
  • WSH batters held scoreless in 1st inning 85% of games (33/39)
NRFI+105
YRFI-140
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TEXTEXatMINMIN
O/U 8
3:10 PM
Target FieldPF 1.0159°FTEX NRFI 73%MIN NRFI 59%
MacKenzie Gore
AwayMacKenzie Gore
ERA
4.59
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.34
K/9
9.2
Dean Kremer
HomeDean Kremer
ERA
4.97
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.20
K/9
8.9
46
Toss-up
  • MacKenzie Gore ERA 4.59 — elevated run risk
  • Dean Kremer ERA 4.97 — elevated run risk
  • TEX batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
NRFI+105
YRFI-145
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HOUHOUatOAKOAK
O/U 10
3:05 PM
Sutter Health Park (Athletics, West Sacramento)PF 1.0057°FHOU NRFI 62%OAK NRFI 70%
Peter Lambert
AwayPeter Lambert
ERA
3.87
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.26
K/9
9.0
Seth Johnson
HomeSeth Johnson
ERA
6.19
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.69
K/9
10.7
35
Lean YRFI
  • Seth Johnson ERA 6.19 — elevated run risk
  • Seth Johnson high WHIP (1.69) means more baserunners
  • High game total (10) — Vegas expects fireworks, YRFI risk
  • OAK batters held scoreless in 1st inning 70% of games (28/40)
NRFI+110
YRFI-150
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CINCINatTORTOR
O/U 8.5
3:07 PM
Rogers CentrePF 1.03Retractable65°F10mphCIN NRFI 74%TOR NRFI 67%
Brandon Williamson
AwayBrandon Williamson
ERA
4.89
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.41
K/9
6.0
Max Scherzer
HomeMax Scherzer
ERA
6.14
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.36
K/9
7.1
28
Lean YRFI
  • Brandon Williamson ERA 4.89 — elevated run risk
  • Max Scherzer ERA 6.14 — elevated run risk
NRFI+140
YRFI-195
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COLCOLatCHWCHW
O/U 8.5
3:10 PM
Guaranteed Rate FieldPF 1.0459°FCOL NRFI 75%CHW NRFI 64%
Kyle Freeland
AwayKyle Freeland
ERA
6.58
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.52
K/9
7.3
Anthony Kay
HomeAnthony Kay
ERA
4.53
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.37
K/9
7.3
20
Strong YRFI
  • Kyle Freeland ERA 6.58 — elevated run risk
  • Anthony Kay ERA 4.53 — elevated run risk
  • Kyle Freeland high WHIP (1.52) means more baserunners
NRFI+125
YRFI-170
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CHCCHCatBOSBOS
O/U 7.5
3:05 PM
Fenway ParkPF 1.0858°F19mphCHC NRFI 68%BOS NRFI 76%
Shota Imanaga
AwayShota Imanaga
ERA
3.74
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.10
K/9
8.9
TBD
HomeTBD
58.4
Toss-up
  • BOS batters held scoreless in 1st inning 76% of games (31/41)
  • Pitcher-friendly weather: Drizzle, 58°F — suppresses offense
  • Drizzle — wet conditions favor pitchers
  • Home pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
  • CHC batting lineup scores 5.2 R/G — high 1st inning threat
  • Hitter-friendly park (PF 1.08) favors YRFI
NRFI+100
YRFI-140
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LADLADatSFSF
O/U 8
3:05 PM
Oracle ParkPF 0.9256°FLAD NRFI 73%SF NRFI 53%
TBD
AwayTBD
Carson Seymour
HomeCarson Seymour
ERA
4.70
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.53
K/9
6.5
48.6
Toss-up
  • Carson Seymour ERA 4.70 — elevated run risk
  • Carson Seymour high WHIP (1.53) means more baserunners
  • Away pitcher TBD — increased uncertainty
  • LAD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.92) supports NRFI
  • Pitcher-friendly weather: Partly Cloudy, 56°F — suppresses offense
NRFI+100
YRFI-135
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