First Inning Run Predictions
League base rate: NRFI has hit 48% of the last 386 games (30d).
How this score has actually done
Our Strong NRFI tier has hit 50.8% across 63 graded games, against a league base rate of 47.7%. Full record by tier.
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4 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run
Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather
2
Strong NRFI
2
Lean NRFI
0
Toss-up
0
Lean YRFI
0
Strong YRFI
PHIat
ATLO/U 6.5
2:00 PM
Truist ParkPF 1.0159°FPHI NRFI 69%ATL NRFI 73%
AwayJesús Luzardo
ERA
2.86
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.07
K/9
11.1
HomeChris Sale
ERA
2.16
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.98
K/9
11.1
98
Strong NRFI- Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Jesús Luzardo 2.86, Chris Sale 2.16) — strong NRFI
- ATL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 73% of games (29/40)
- Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
NRFI+100
YRFI-135
BOSat
NYYO/U 6.5
8:10 PM
Yankee StadiumPF 1.0763°FBOS NRFI 75%NYY NRFI 77%
AwayPayton Tolle
ERA
3.03
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.10
K/9
10.3
HomeCam Schlittler
ERA
1.95
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.92
K/9
11.1
95
Strong NRFI- Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Payton Tolle 3.03, Cam Schlittler 1.95) — strong NRFI
- BOS batters held scoreless in 1st inning 75% of games (30/40)
- NYY batters held scoreless in 1st inning 77% of games (30/39)
- Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
NRFI+110
YRFI-145
CHCat
SDO/U 7
10:10 PM
Petco ParkPF 0.9362°FCHC NRFI 64%SD NRFI 69%
AwayMatthew Boyd
ERA
3.91
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.21
K/9
6.8
HomeMichael King
ERA
3.21
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.18
K/9
7.7
67
Lean NRFI- Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.93) supports NRFI
- Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
- CHC batting lineup scores 5.3 R/G — high 1st inning threat
NRFI+125
YRFI-170
CHWat
HOUO/U 8
5:00 PM
Minute Maid ParkPF 1.02Retractable74°FCHW NRFI 68%HOU NRFI 64%
AwayHagen Smith
ERA
1.29
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.96
K/9
13.2
HomeAJ Blubaugh
ERA
3.66
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.23
K/9
8.8
63
Lean NRFI- Hagen Smith has elite ERA (1.29) — strong NRFI signal
NRFI+105
YRFI-140