Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsMLB Analytics

First Inning Run Predictions

League base rate: NRFI has hit 47% of the last 339 games (30d).

How this score has actually done

Our Strong NRFI tier has hit 50.7% across 67 graded games, against a league base rate of 46.9%. Full record by tier.

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4 games today — NRFI No Run | YRFI Yes Run

Pitcher 1st-inning splits, team scoring rates, Vegas totals, and live weather

4
Strong NRFI
0
Lean NRFI
0
Toss-up
0
Lean YRFI
0
Strong YRFI
NYYNYYatTBTB
O/U 7
6:30 PM
Tropicana FieldPF 0.93DomeNYY NRFI 75%TB NRFI 68%
Gerrit Cole
AwayGerrit Cole
ERA
3.61
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.10
K/9
9.3
Drew Rasmussen
HomeDrew Rasmussen
ERA
2.67
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.91
K/9
9.1
91
Strong NRFI
  • Drew Rasmussen has elite ERA (2.67) — strong NRFI signal
  • NYY batters held scoreless in 1st inning 75% of games (27/36)
  • Pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.93) supports NRFI
  • Fixed dome — controlled environment favors pitching
  • Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
NRFI-110
YRFI-125
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CHWCHWatCLECLE
O/U 6.5
1:08 PM
Progressive FieldPF 0.9865°FCHW NRFI 68%CLE NRFI 69%
Hagen Smith
AwayHagen Smith
ERA
1.29
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.96
K/9
13.2
Parker Messick
HomeParker Messick
ERA
2.56
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.06
K/9
9.3
90
Strong NRFI
  • Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Hagen Smith 1.29, Parker Messick 2.56) — strong NRFI
  • Low game total (6.5) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
Odds not yet availableView on DraftKings
ATLATLatLADLAD
O/U 8.5
4:00 PM
Dodger StadiumPF 0.9795°F9mphATL NRFI 72%LAD NRFI 74%
Dylan Dodd
AwayDylan Dodd
ERA
2.54
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.91
K/9
9.6
Tarik Skubal
HomeTarik Skubal
ERA
2.72
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.96
K/9
10.6
87
Strong NRFI
  • Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA (Dylan Dodd 2.54, Tarik Skubal 2.72) — strong NRFI
  • ATL batters held scoreless in 1st inning 72% of games (26/36)
  • LAD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 74% of games (26/35)
NRFI-125
YRFI-110
View on DraftKings
SDSDatMILMIL
O/U 7
8:30 PM
American Family FieldPF 1.02Retractable61°F9mphSD NRFI 71%MIL NRFI 61%
Robbie Ray
AwayRobbie Ray
ERA
3.59
1st Inn
—
WHIP
1.35
K/9
7.6
Jacob Misiorowski
HomeJacob Misiorowski
ERA
1.80
1st Inn
—
WHIP
0.80
K/9
13.0
77
Strong NRFI
  • Jacob Misiorowski has elite ERA (1.80) — strong NRFI signal
  • SD batters held scoreless in 1st inning 71% of games (25/35)
  • Low game total (7) — Vegas expects a pitchers' duel
NRFI+115
YRFI-155
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