Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsMarch Madness
NCAABBMatchup
UConn
#2 seed

UConn

VS
Duke
#1 seed

Duke

Bobby's PickDuke
Confidence68%

Duke has the edge based on the statistical profile, but this could be competitive. Look for their key advantages to be the difference.

Modest efficiency advantage for Duke (#3 vs #9).
Duke's Q1 record (19-3) shows significantly more high-level wins than the opponent (10-2).
Duke holds a +4.8 scoring margin edge.

AI Matchup Analysis

Bobby's PickDuke
Confidence68%
Key Rationale
Modest efficiency advantage for Duke (#3 vs #9).
Duke's Q1 record (19-3) shows significantly more high-level wins than the opponent (10-2).
Duke holds a +4.8 scoring margin edge.

UConn (+77.5 scoring margin) faces Duke (+82.3 scoring margin) in a matchup that projects to around 80 total points. Duke holds statistical advantages in 2 of 2 key categories.

•Duke dominates the boards with 40.3 RPG. Second-chance points could swing this matchup.
Prediction

Duke has the edge based on the statistical profile, but this could be competitive. Look for their key advantages to be the difference.

B
UConn Grade
B
Duke Grade
48%
UConnFG%
vs
49%
DukeFG%

Tournament Context

East Region — Elite 8Capital One Arena
2UConn
vs
Duke1
Adjusted Efficiency
UConnUConn#9 Eff.
Adj. Offense123.5
Adj. Defense94.5
DukeDuke#3 Eff.
Adj. Offense128.2
Adj. Defense92.6

Pace & Efficiency

Expected Pace79.9Up-Tempo
UConn+77.5Scoring Margin
Duke+82.3Scoring Margin
Offense77.5 PPG
Offense82.3 PPG
DefenseN/A Opp PPG
DefenseN/A Opp PPG

Shooting & Box Score

48.2%FG%49.0%
35.2%3P%35.1%
71.6%FT%72.4%
36.6RPG40.3
18.4APG16.9
11.2TOV10.5

Total Projection

Projected Total159.8
UConn: 77.5Duke: 82.3
No DK total line available

Key Matchup Factors

UConn0 advantages
2 advantagesDuke
77.5 PPG
Scoring Advantage
82.3 PPG
36.6 RPG
Rebounding
40.3 RPG

Statistical Comparison

UConnUConn
STAT
DukeDuke
77.5
PPG
82.3
0.0
Opp PPG
0.0
36.6
RPG
40.3
18.4
APG
16.9
48.2%
FG%
49.0%
35.2%
3P%
35.1%
71.6%
FT%
72.4%
6.9
SPG
7.8
5.3
BPG
3.3
11.2
TOV
10.5
UConn

UConn

Strengths
Strong scoring offense
Efficient shooting
Excellent ball movement
Strong shot-blocking presence
Full Team Profile
Duke

Duke

Strengths
Elite scoring offense
Efficient shooting
Dominant on the boards
Excellent ball movement
Full Team Profile