Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsMarch Madness
Bracket
Picks
Futures
Results
My Record
💸 Refer
Bobby's Bets — NCAA Tournament Analytics
LearnRefer & EarnMy RecordDiscordTwitter

Bobby's Bets publishes sports statistics and analysis for informational purposes only. Nothing here is a prediction of results or a recommendation to wager. Must be 21+ (18+ where permitted by law). Please play responsibly.

Problem gambling? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER — free, confidential, 24/7 — or visit ncpgambling.org.

Terms of Service·Disclaimer·Responsible Play

HubBracketPicksFuturesResults
NCAABBMatchup
Michigan St
#3 seed

Michigan St

VS
UConn
#2 seed

UConn

Bobby's PickMichigan St
Confidence50%

This is a toss-up. Both teams have similar statistical profiles. Tournament experience and shot-making in crunch time will likely decide this one.

Underdog is actually HIGHER-rated in efficiency (#9 vs #11) -- a potential mispriced seed.
Underdog has the stronger Q1 resume (11-4 vs 6-2) -- battle-tested against elite competition.

AI Matchup Analysis

Bobby's PickMichigan St
Confidence50%
Key Rationale
Underdog is actually HIGHER-rated in efficiency (#9 vs #11) -- a potential mispriced seed.
Underdog has the stronger Q1 resume (11-4 vs 6-2) -- battle-tested against elite competition.

Michigan St (+78.9 scoring margin) faces UConn (+77.5 scoring margin) in a matchup that projects to around 78 total points. Michigan St holds statistical advantages in 1 of 1 key categories.

•Michigan St dominates the boards with 39.8 RPG. Second-chance points could swing this matchup.
Prediction

This is a toss-up. Both teams have similar statistical profiles. Tournament experience and shot-making in crunch time will likely decide this one.

B
Michigan St Grade
B
UConn Grade
B
Michigan St Grade
47%
Michigan StFG%
vs
48%
UConnFG%
B
UConn Grade

Tournament Context

East Region — Sweet 16Capital One Arena
3Michigan State
vs
UConn2
Adjusted Efficiency
Michigan StMichigan St#11 Eff.
Adj. Offense123.2
Adj. Defense96.2
UConnUConn#9 Eff.
Adj. Offense123.5
Adj. Defense94.5

Pace & Efficiency

Expected Pace78.2Up-Tempo
Michigan St+78.9Scoring Margin
UConn+77.5Scoring Margin
Offense78.9 PPG
Offense77.5 PPG
DefenseN/A Opp PPG
DefenseN/A Opp PPG

Shooting & Box Score

47.1%FG%48.2%
35.9%3P%35.2%
76.3%FT%71.6%
39.8RPG36.6
18.5APG18.4
11.5TOV11.2

Total Projection

Projected Total156.4
Michigan St: 78.9UConn: 77.5
No DK total line available

Key Matchup Factors

Michigan St1 advantage
0 advantagesUConn
39.8 RPG
Rebounding
36.6 RPG

Statistical Comparison

Michigan StMichigan St
STAT
UConnUConn
78.9
PPG
77.5
0.0
Opp PPG
0.0
39.8
RPG
36.6
18.5
APG
18.4
47.1%
FG%
48.2%
35.9%
3P%
35.2%
76.3%
FT%
71.6%
5.1
SPG
6.9
4.1
BPG
5.3
11.5
TOV
11.2
Michigan St

Michigan St

Strengths
Strong scoring offense
Efficient shooting
Dominant on the boards
Excellent ball movement
Full Team Profile
UConn

UConn

Strengths
Strong scoring offense
Efficient shooting
Excellent ball movement
Strong shot-blocking presence
Full Team Profile