NCAABBMatchup
#5 seed
St John's
VS
#1 seed
Duke
Bobby's PickSt John's
Confidence50%
This is a toss-up. Both teams have similar statistical profiles. Tournament experience and shot-making in crunch time will likely decide this one.
Underdog is actually HIGHER-rated in efficiency (#3 vs #10) -- a potential mispriced seed.
AI Matchup Analysis
Bobby's PickSt John's
Confidence50%
Key Rationale
Underdog is actually HIGHER-rated in efficiency (#3 vs #10) -- a potential mispriced seed.
St John's (+81.6 scoring margin) faces Duke (+82.3 scoring margin) in a matchup that projects to around 82 total points. St John's holds statistical advantages in 0 of 0 key categories.
Prediction
This is a toss-up. Both teams have similar statistical profiles. Tournament experience and shot-making in crunch time will likely decide this one.
C+
St John's GradeB
Duke GradeC+
St John's Grade45%
vs
49%
B
Duke GradeTournament Context
East Region — Sweet 16Capital One Arena
5St. John's
vsDuke1
Adjusted EfficiencySt John's#10 Eff.Duke#3 Eff.
St John's#10 Eff.Adj. Offense121.4
Adj. Defense93.8
Duke#3 Eff.Adj. Offense128.2
Adj. Defense92.6
Pace & Efficiency
Expected Pace81.9Up-Tempo
St John's+81.6Scoring Margin
Duke+82.3Scoring Margin
Offense81.6 PPG
Offense82.3 PPG
DefenseN/A Opp PPG
DefenseN/A Opp PPG
Shooting & Box Score
45.4%FG%49.0%
33.2%3P%35.1%
72.7%FT%72.4%
38.6RPG40.3
16.3APG16.9
10.5TOV10.5
Total Projection
Projected Total163.9
St John's: 81.6Duke: 82.3
No DK total line available
Statistical Comparison
St John'sDuke
81.6
PPG82.3
0.0
Opp PPG0.0
38.6
RPG40.3
16.3
APG16.9
45.4%
FG%49.0%
33.2%
3P%35.1%
72.7%
FT%72.4%
7.9
SPG7.8
4.9
BPG3.3
10.5
TOV10.5
St John's
Strengths
Full Team Profile Elite scoring offense
Dominant on the boards
Excellent ball movement
Strong shot-blocking presence
Duke
Strengths
Full Team Profile Elite scoring offense
Efficient shooting
Dominant on the boards
Excellent ball movement