Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsMarch Madness
NCAABBMatchup
TCU
#9 seed

TCU

VS
Duke
#1 seed

Duke

Bobby's PickDuke
Confidence80%

Duke has the edge based on the statistical profile, but this could be competitive. Look for their key advantages to be the difference.

Major efficiency gap: Duke ranked #3 vs opponent at #48 in adjusted efficiency.
Duke's defense (92.6 adj. D) is significantly tighter. Defense travels in March.
Duke has substantially more offensive firepower (128.2 vs 114.7 adj. O).

AI Matchup Analysis

Bobby's PickDuke
Confidence80%
Key Rationale
Major efficiency gap: Duke ranked #3 vs opponent at #48 in adjusted efficiency.
Duke's defense (92.6 adj. D) is significantly tighter. Defense travels in March.
Duke has substantially more offensive firepower (128.2 vs 114.7 adj. O).
Duke's Q1 record (19-3) shows significantly more high-level wins than the opponent (4-2).
Duke holds a +4.0 scoring margin edge.

TCU (+78.3 scoring margin) faces Duke (+82.3 scoring margin) in a matchup that projects to around 80 total points. Duke holds statistical advantages in 2 of 2 key categories.

•Duke dominates the boards with 40.3 RPG. Second-chance points could swing this matchup.
Prediction

Duke has the edge based on the statistical profile, but this could be competitive. Look for their key advantages to be the difference.

C
TCU Grade
B
Duke Grade
45%
TCUFG%
vs
49%
DukeFG%

Tournament Context

East Region — 2nd RoundBon Secours Wellness Arena
9TCU
vs
Duke1
Adjusted Efficiency
TCUTCU#48 Eff.
Adj. Offense114.7
Adj. Defense99.3
DukeDuke#3 Eff.
Adj. Offense128.2
Adj. Defense92.6

Pace & Efficiency

Expected Pace80.3Up-Tempo
TCU+78.3Scoring Margin
Duke+82.3Scoring Margin
Offense78.3 PPG
Offense82.3 PPG
DefenseN/A Opp PPG
DefenseN/A Opp PPG

Shooting & Box Score

44.8%FG%49.0%
33.1%3P%35.1%
70.8%FT%72.4%
36.2RPG40.3
15.6APG16.9
10.9TOV10.5

Total Projection

Projected Total160.6
TCU: 78.3Duke: 82.3
No DK total line available

Key Matchup Factors

TCU0 advantages
2 advantagesDuke
78.3 PPG
Scoring Advantage
82.3 PPG
36.2 RPG
Rebounding
40.3 RPG

Statistical Comparison

TCUTCU
STAT
DukeDuke
78.3
PPG
82.3
0.0
Opp PPG
0.0
36.2
RPG
40.3
15.6
APG
16.9
44.8%
FG%
49.0%
33.1%
3P%
35.1%
70.8%
FT%
72.4%
7.7
SPG
7.8
4.5
BPG
3.3
10.9
TOV
10.5
TCU

TCU

Strengths
Strong scoring offense
Strong shot-blocking presence
Full Team Profile
Duke

Duke

Strengths
Elite scoring offense
Efficient shooting
Dominant on the boards
Excellent ball movement
Full Team Profile