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AI-powered NCAA Tournament analytics. Data-driven picks, edge detection, and bracket analysis.

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HubPicksEdgesBracketFuturesResults
NCAABBMatchup
Utah State
#9 seed

Utah State

29-7
Final
86-76
Villanova
#8 seed

Villanova

24-9

Post-Game Review

Utah State (+5.5 scoring margin) played Villanova (-8.8 scoring margin). The projected total was 161 points; the actual total was 162. Utah State held statistical advantages in 3 of 3 key categories.

•Utah State averaged 5.4 more points per game this season, holding a significant offensive advantage coming in.
•Utah State held opponents to 77.0 PPG this season — their defensive scheme was a key factor.
Result

Utah State defeated Villanova 86-76 in a comfortable victory.

B+
Utah State Grade
C+
Villanova Grade
B+
Utah State Grade
50%
Utah StateFG%
vs
46%
VillanovaFG%
C+
Villanova Grade

Tournament Context

West Region — 1st RoundViejas Arena
9Utah State
vs
Villanova8
Historical upset rate (9-seeds vs 8-seeds)48.7%

9-seeds upset 8-seeds 48.7% of the time — one of the most common upsets in March

Adjusted Efficiency
Utah StateUtah State
VillanovaVillanova#34 Eff.
Adj. Offense120.0
Adj. Defense101.0

Pace & Efficiency

Expected Pace79.8Up-Tempo
Utah State+5.5Scoring Margin
Villanova-8.8Scoring Margin
Offense82.5 PPG
Offense77.2 PPG
Defense77.0 Opp PPG
Defense86.0 Opp PPG

Shooting & Box Score

49.8%FG%45.7%
35.8%3P%35.3%
70.7%FT%69.4%
34.6RPG34.5
17.6APG15.5
10.6TOV10.1

Total Projection

Projected Total161.3
Utah State: 84.3Villanova: 77.1
No DK total line available

Key Matchup Factors

Utah State3 advantages
0 advantagesVillanova
77.0 Opp PPG
Defensive Edge
86.0 Opp PPG
82.5 PPG
Scoring Advantage
77.2 PPG
17.6 APG
Ball Movement
15.5 APG

Statistical Comparison

Utah StateUtah State
STAT
VillanovaVillanova
82.5
PPG
77.2
77.0
Opp PPG
86.0
34.6
RPG
34.5
17.6
APG
15.5
49.8%
FG%
45.7%
35.8%
3P%
35.3%
70.7%
FT%
69.4%
8.8
SPG
7.4
2.9
BPG
2.2
10.6
TOV
10.1

Utah StateUtah State Recent Games

L@ArizonaArizona
66-78
W@VillanovaVillanova
86-76
1-1 SU

VillanovaVillanova Recent Games

LvsUtah StateUtah State
76-86
0-1 SU
Utah State

Utah State

29-7
Strengths
Elite scoring offense
Efficient shooting
Excellent ball movement
Disruptive with steals
Weaknesses
Defensive concerns
Full Team Profile
Villanova

Villanova

24-9
Strengths
Strong scoring offense
Weaknesses
Defensive concerns
Full Team Profile