Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM EDT
MIA
+4.5
+180
Total
38.5
NYJ
-4.5
-218
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 4.5 sits half a point past 4, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
- Spread 4.5 — the 4-6 point band. In 1,063 games since 1999 the favorite covered 49.2% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–52.2%) is taken into account.
- Total 38.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,584 of them.
Last three seasons
MIA
16-22-1 ATS · 15-24 SU · 20-19 O/U
9-14-1 ATS as an underdog
NYJ
16-22-1 ATS · 10-29 SU · 22-17 O/U
10-14-1 ATS as an underdog
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
New York Jets open a 4.5-point favorite over Miami Dolphins — about 69% implied to win outright. The 38.5 total prices it near 22–17, a low-scoring script.
Miami Dolphins went 7–10 in 2025 — #24 of 32 by point differential (-4.5/g).
New York Jets went 3–14 in 2025 — #30 of 32 by point differential (-11.9/g).
Miami Dolphins face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #2).
2025 team profiles
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets