NFL Picks

Every pick is snapshotted before kickoff and graded publicly after the game — the record is the record. A model pick is a DraftKings price that beats Pinnacle's no-vig price for the same line by at least 1%; its grade is the size of that edge (A+ is 6% or more, B is 1%). Hit rates, matchup and form are shown beside each pick as context — they no longer decide it. Picks are fewer early in the week, before Pinnacle posts its props. The board is grouped by game day and opens on the model's own picks; the second tab is every prop we graded, most of which the model did not pick.