NFL Results
Every model pick, snapshotted before kickoff and graded against the box score after. Units are 1u flat at the price we published. Wins and losses are both here.
How picks are chosen changed on Sep 23. Weeks 1–2 used recent hit rates; they lost to the market, and this record keeps them. From Week 3 a pick is a DraftKings price that beats Pinnacle's no-vig price — the week table shows each method's results separately.
Record
858-914
Win rate
48.4%
Break-even
52.8%
at the prices published
Units
−163.1u
1,772 picks
By week
| Week | Picks | Record | Win % | Break-even | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | 1 | 1-0 | 100.0% | 46.3% | +1.2u |
| Week 7 | 26 | 12-14 | 46.2% | 47.3% | −0.8u |
| Week 6 | 22 | 8-14 | 36.4% | 42.8% | −3.8u |
| Week 5 | 38 | 15-23 | 39.5% | 45.7% | −5.1u |
| Week 4 | 30 | 17-13 | 56.7% | 42.5% | +10.9u |
| Week 3 | 21 | 8-13 | 38.1% | 46.3% | −3.2u |
| Week 2 | 809 | 404-405 | 49.9% | 53.3% | −68.1u |
| Week 1 | 825 | 393-432 | 47.6% | 53.6% | −94.1u |
Latest graded · Thu, Oct 29 & Sun, Oct 25
| Player | Pick | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | Rush Attempts Over 15.5 | +116 | 21 | win |
| Aaron Jones | Rushing Yards Over 38.5 | -115 | 26 | loss |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Receptions Under 7.5 | -111 | 9 | loss |
| Derrick Henry | Receiving Yards Under 6.5 | -108 | 4 | win |
| Deshaun Watson | Interceptions Over 0.5 | +114 | 1 | win |
| Evan Engram | Receptions Under 2.5 | -108 | 1 | win |
| Garrett Wilson | Receptions Under 5.5 | +102 | 2 | win |
| J.K. Dobbins | Receiving Yards Under 4.5 | -107 | 0 | win |
| Jacoby Brissett | Passing TDs Over 1.5 | +153 | 1 | loss |
| Jacoby Brissett | Completions Over 23.5 | +111 | 27 | win |
| Jahan Dotson | Receptions Over 2.5 | +149 | 1 | loss |
| Jared Goff | Passing TDs Under 2.5 | -165 | 2 | win |
| Jaylen Warren | Receiving Yards Under 25.5 | -108 | 36 | loss |
| Jordan Love | Interceptions Over 0.5 | -124 | 1 | win |
| Jordan Love | Passing TDs Under 1.5 | +154 | 2 | loss |
| Juwan Johnson | Receptions Under 3.5 | -101 | 1 | win |
| Kayshon Boutte | Receptions Over 1.5 | +149 | 1 | loss |
| Kirk Cousins | Rushing Yards Under 1.5 | -117 | 6 | loss |
| Kyler Murray | Completions Under 20.5 | -102 | 14 | win |
| Sam LaPorta | Receiving Yards Over 49.5 | -111 | 18 | loss |
| Sean Tucker | Rushing Yards Under 7.5 | -106 | 52 | loss |
| Tyler Allgeier | Receiving Yards Under 10.5 | -108 | 30 | loss |
| Tyler Allgeier | Rush Attempts Over 9.5 | +110 | 8 | loss |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Receptions Over 1.5 | +162 | 3 | win |
| Xavier Worthy | Anytime TD Over 0.5 | +260 | 0 | loss |
| Zay Flowers | Anytime TD Over 0.5 | +215 | 1 | win |