Bobby'sSports Analytics · NFL
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Is that boost any good?

1,512priced props

A profit boost is applied to a price that already carries the book's margin, so part of it is spent buying back the vig before any of it is edge. On a standard −110 prop that costs about 10% — a boost smaller than that leaves you behind the market's own fair number.

DraftKings 30% boost — use it here

How →

Cameron Ward

Passing TDs Over 1.5

+208 → +270+14%DK

Tyler Huntley

Passing TDs Over 1.5

+202 → +263+14%DK

Ted Hurst

Receptions Over 1.5

+162 → +211+12%DK

Daniel Carlson

Extra Points Made Under 1.5

+150 → +195+11%DK

The short answer. It depends far more on the market than on the boost. An ordinary two-sided prop — receiving yards, receptions — needs roughly 8–20%, so any normal 25% or 50% token clears it comfortably.

Anytime touchdown is different. It needs 28% on average and up to 123%, because the touchdown field carries about 27% margin against roughly 5% on a standard prop. A 50% boost on an anytime scorer is often not enough — and that is the market books boost most.

Enter the boost you have been offered. Every prop below shows the boost it would need to reach fair value, measured by de-vigging the two prices DraftKings posts on it. How the fair price is derived →

Token offers today

A percentage token is almost all DraftKings and FanDuel ever hand out, and it is the case this page answers best — we already know what every prop on the board requires.

FanDuel

50% MLB Postseason Profit Boost

Clears 1,495 of 1,512 priced NFL props

FanDuel

50% MLB Postseason Profit Boost

Clears 1,495 of 1,512 priced NFL props

DraftKings

30% MLB SGP Boost for MIL/LAD

Clears 1,381 of 1,512 priced NFL props

DraftKings

30% NFL SGP Boost for SEA/DEN

Clears 1,381 of 1,512 priced NFL props

bet365

50% Champions League SGP Boost

Clears 1,495 of 1,512 priced NFL props

bet365

30% MLB SGP Boost

Clears 1,381 of 1,512 priced NFL props

BetMGM

Pro Football SGP Boost Token

NFL

BetMGM

Pro Football SGP Boost Token

NFL

Caesars

Play Squad Builder & Win $50k in Bonus Bets

NFL

Caesars

Play Squad Builder & Win $50k in Bonus Bets

NFL

Boosts on offer right now

Fixed-odds boosts currently posted, ranked by how far each moves your break-even. That figure is arithmetic on the book's own two prices and assumes nothing: a +3pp shift means the bet needs to land three points less often than before to be worth the same. It is not a claim that the bet is good — for a three-leg parlay nobody can de-vig, only the price improved.

theScore

J. Chourio to Record a Hit & MIL to Win

MLB · +155 → +220

+7.97pp
theScore

C. McDavid to Record 2+ Pts & EDM to Win

NHL · +130 → +180

+7.76pp
theScore

Any Player to Score 40+ Pts on NBA Opening Day (Oct 20)

NBA · +135 → +185

+7.47pp
theScore

Any 2 of A. Ovechkin, C. Caufield & J. Robertson to Score a Goal

NHL · +170 → +220

+5.79pp
theScore

F. Freeman or W. Contreras to Hit a Home Run

MLB · +300 → +400

+5.00pp
Caesars

JSN 8+ Rec & Score a TD

NFL · +235 → +280

+3.53pp
Caesars

S. Darnold & B. Nix 200+ Pass Yds Each

NFL · +155 → +180

+3.50pp
theScore

JSN to Record 10+ Rec Yds in Q1

NFL · +290 → +350

+3.42pp
BetMGM

Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) in MIL/LAD

MLB · +110 → +125

+3.17pp
Caesars

B. Turang & M. Betts 2+ H+R+RBI

MLB · +300 → +350

+2.78pp
bet365

DOR to Win & Record Most CKs, SOT vs BODO

Soccer · +460 → +550

+2.47pp
BetMGM

No Run First Inning (NRFI) of MIL/LAD

MLB · -138 → -125

+2.43pp
BetMGM

Both Teams to Score in Q1 of SEA/DEN

NFL · +150 → +165

+2.26pp
bet365

SEA to Win & JSN 100+ Rec Yds, 1+ TD

NFL · +390 → +450

+2.23pp
Caesars

J. Waddle 50+ Rec Yds & Score a TD

NFL · +400 → +450

+1.82pp
Caesars

J. Chourio & F. Freeman 2+ Total Bases Each

MLB · +425 → +475

+1.66pp
Caesars

LAD to Score 5+ Runs & S. Ohtani 2+ Hits

MLB · +450 → +500

+1.52pp
bet365

RMA to Win, Most CKs, SOT & ROMA Most Cards

Soccer · +750 → +850

+1.24pp
bet365

JSN, JK Dobbins & C. Sutton 1+ TD Each

NFL · +1700 → +1800

+0.29pp
%

A 25% profit boost clears 1,294 of 1,512 priced props (86%). It is above the 10% a standard −110 prop costs.

Boost needed to reach fair value · lowest first

Oronde Gadsden II

Receptions Over 2.5 · vs KC

+307-42.0%

Keaton Mitchell

Receptions Over 2.5 · vs KC

+133-14.4%

Mark Andrews

Receptions Over 3.5 · vs CLE

+104-14.1%

Tyler Warren

Receptions Over 5.5 · vs TEN

+132-12.1%

Rico Dowdle

Rush Attempts Over 7.5 · vs TB

+156-11.0%

Drake Maye

Rush Attempts Over 5.5 · vs NYJ

-101-9.8%

Kirk Cousins

Interceptions Under 0.5 · vs BUF

+132-9.4%

DK Metcalf

Receptions Over 4.5 · vs TB

+157-8.4%

Kyren Williams

Receptions Over 3.5 · vs ARI

+168-7.9%

Kendrick Bourne

Receptions Over 3.5 · vs LA

+130-7.3%

Laquon Treadwell

Receptions Over 2.5 · vs TEN

+150-6.8%

Deshaun Watson

Passing TDs Over 1.5 · vs BAL

+166-6.8%

Michael Wilson

Receptions Over 5.5 · vs LA

+119-6.7%

Matthew Stafford

Passing TDs Over 2.5 · vs ARI

+118-6.7%

Xavier Worthy

Receptions Over 4.5 · vs LAC

+108-6.7%

Cade Otton

Receptions Over 3.5 · vs PIT

+120-5.6%

Patrick Mahomes

Passing TDs Over 1.5 · vs LAC

+101-4.9%

Blake Corum

Rush Attempts Under 9.5 · vs ARI

+105-4.8%

Jalon Daniels

Completions Over 17.5 · vs PIT

-116-4.5%

Jalen Brooks

Receptions Under 1.5 · vs LA

+122-4.1%

Daniel Jones

Passing TDs Under 1.5 · vs TEN

-112-3.8%

Tre Tucker

Receptions Under 3.5 · vs BUF

-102-3.6%

Harold Fannin Jr.

Receptions Over 4.5 · vs BAL

+129-3.4%

Javonte Williams

Receiving Yards Over 14.5 · vs GB

+103-2.9%

Omarion Hampton

Receptions Over 1.5 · vs KC

+180-2.8%

Darnell Washington

Receptions Over 2.5 · vs TB

+101-2.6%

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Receptions Under 1.5 · vs JAX

+119-2.5%

Xavier Worthy

Receiving Yards Over 48.5 · vs LAC

-111-2.5%

Bhayshul Tuten

Receptions Over 1.5 · vs HOU

-129-2.5%

Josh Allen

Interceptions Under 0.5 · vs LV

-119-2.4%

C.J. Stroud

Rush Attempts Under 3.5 · vs JAX

-147-2.3%

Josh Downs

Receiving Yards Over 48.5 · vs TEN

-113-1.8%

Bhayshul Tuten

Rush Attempts Over 16.5 · vs HOU

-106-1.5%

Chuba Hubbard

Rush Attempts Under 17.5 · vs PHI

-101-1.4%

Josh Downs

Receptions Under 4.5 · vs TEN

-124-1.3%

Jalen Coker

Receptions Under 4.5 · vs PHI

+119-0.9%

Tanner McKee

Passing TDs Under 0.5 · vs CAR

+184-0.8%

Brenton Strange

Receptions Over 3.5 · vs HOU

-139-0.6%

Bucky Irving

Receptions Under 1.5 · vs PIT

+145-0.6%

Malachi Fields

Receptions Over 2.5 · vs NO

+173-0.5%

Dalton Kincaid

Receptions Over 4.5 · vs LV

+122-0.4%

Kalif Raymond

Receiving Yards Over 24.5 · vs ATL

-118-0.2%

Christian Watson

Receptions Under 4.5 · vs DAL

+112-0.1%

Bijan Robinson

Receptions Over 3.5 · vs CHI

-1050.0%

Jameis Winston

Completions Over 19.5 · vs NO

-1120.1%

Jonathan Taylor

Rush Attempts Over 19.5 · vs TEN

-1120.1%

Mike Evans

Receptions Under 5.5 · vs WAS

-1040.7%

Javonte Williams

Rushing Yards Under 70.5 · vs GB

-1110.8%

Brock Purdy

Interceptions Over 0.5 · vs WAS

+1150.9%

Davis Allen

Receptions Under 0.5 · vs ARI

+1811.0%

Derrick Henry

Rush Attempts Under 20.5 · vs CLE

-1011.0%

Aaron Rodgers

Passing TDs Over 1.5 · vs TB

+1381.3%

Darren Waller

Receptions Over 3.5 · vs PHI

+1571.4%

Kayshon Boutte

Receptions Over 2.5 · vs JAX

+1441.4%

Tyler Higbee

Receptions Over 2.5 · vs ARI

-1421.6%

Brock Bowers

Receiving Yards Over 79.5 · vs BUF

-1171.6%

Kalif Raymond

Receptions Over 2.5 · vs ATL

-1191.7%

Trey McBride

Receptions Over 7.5 · vs LA

+1181.8%

Rico Dowdle

Receptions Under 1.5 · vs TB

-1141.9%

Tyler Shough

Rushing Yards Under 11.5 · vs NYG

-1112.0%

Josh Allen

Passing TDs Under 1.5 · vs LV

+1082.5%

Brock Bowers

Receptions Under 6.5 · vs BUF

+1102.6%

Pat Freiermuth

Receptions Under 3.5 · vs TB

-1112.8%

Carnell Tate

Receiving Yards Under 53.5 · vs IND

-1112.8%

Brian Thomas Jr.

Receiving Yards Over 17.5 · vs HOU

-1122.9%

C.J. Stroud

Completions Over 22.5 · vs JAX

-1133.0%

Aaron Rodgers

Passing Yards Over 229.5 · vs TB

-1033.0%

Kyren Williams

Rush Attempts Over 14.5 · vs ARI

-1033.0%

Emeka Egbuka

Receptions Under 3.5 · vs PIT

+1083.6%

Drake London

Receptions Under 6.5 · vs CHI

-1373.9%

Patrick Mahomes

Interceptions Under 0.5 · vs LAC

-1244.0%

Denzel Boston

Receptions Over 3.5 · vs BAL

-1114.0%

Brock Purdy

Passing TDs Under 2.5 · vs WAS

-1694.2%

Kenneth Walker III

Receptions Under 3.5 · vs LAC

-1574.4%

Justin Herbert

Completions Under 18.5 · vs KC

-1174.5%

Tetairoa McMillan

Receptions Under 5.5 · vs PHI

-1554.5%

Elic Ayomanor

Receptions Under 1.5 · vs IND

-1384.6%

Tyler Shough

Completions Over 23.5 · vs NYG

+1164.7%

Nico Collins

Receptions Under 5.5 · vs JAX

+1094.7%

Davante Adams

Receptions Over 4.5 · vs ARI

+1224.8%

Bijan Robinson

Rush Attempts Under 18.5 · vs CHI

-1104.8%

Carnell Tate

Receptions Under 4.5 · vs IND

-1154.8%

Bryce Young

Interceptions Over 0.5 · vs PHI

-1055.0%

Trevor Lawrence

Rush Attempts Under 3.5 · vs HOU

-1165.3%

Braelon Allen

Rush Attempts Over 17.5 · vs NE

+1145.4%

Ty Johnson

Receptions Over 2.5 · vs LV

+1635.6%

Josh Allen

Completions Under 20.5 · vs LV

-1015.6%

Jahan Dotson

Receptions Under 1.5 · vs CHI

+1305.6%

Christian McCaffrey

Rush Attempts Under 14.5 · vs WAS

-1145.6%

Trevor Lawrence

Interceptions Under 0.5 · vs HOU

+1095.6%

MarShawn Lloyd

Rush Attempts Under 11.5 · vs DAL

-1105.6%

Woody Marks

Receptions Under 2.5 · vs JAX

+1055.7%

Blake Corum

Receptions Over 1.5 · vs ARI

+1415.8%

Bucky Irving

Rush Attempts Under 15.5 · vs PIT

-1125.8%

Colby Parkinson

Receptions Under 1.5 · vs ARI

-1125.8%

Bryce Young

Completions Under 20.5 · vs PHI

+1005.8%

Jacoby Brissett

Completions Over 23.5 · vs LA

-1055.8%

Kenneth Walker III

Rush Attempts Over 19.5 · vs LAC

-1055.8%

Jayden Daniels

Interceptions Over 0.5 · vs SF

+1325.9%

Jalen Royals

Receptions Under 2.5 · vs LAC

-1505.9%

Drake Maye

Passing TDs Under 1.5 · vs NYJ

+1266.0%

Davis Allen

Receiving Yards Over 7.5 · vs ARI

-1066.0%

Tony Pollard

Rush Attempts Under 14.5 · vs IND

-1066.0%

Seth McGowan

Rushing Yards Under 14.5 · vs TEN

-1066.0%

Jameis Winston

Rushing Yards Under 4.5 · vs NO

-1066.0%

Tyler Goodson

Rushing Yards Over 9.5 · vs GB

-1066.0%

Jalon Daniels

Passing TDs Under 0.5 · vs PIT

+1756.1%

Roschon Johnson

Rushing Yards Over 19.5 · vs ATL

-1226.3%

Isaiah Likely

Receptions Over 5.5 · vs NO

+1136.3%

Josh Allen

Rush Attempts Over 7.5 · vs LV

+1136.3%

Darnell Mooney

Receptions Over 1.5 · vs NO

-1286.5%

Trevor Lawrence

Passing TDs Over 1.5 · vs HOU

+1476.6%

Rome Odunze

Receptions Over 2.5 · vs ATL

-1676.6%

Devaughn Vele

Receptions Under 4.5 · vs NYG

-1426.6%

Daniel Jones

Interceptions Over 0.5 · vs TEN

+1316.7%

Xavier Hutchinson

Receiving Yards Over 14.5 · vs JAX

-1126.7%

Kendre Miller

Rush Attempts Under 9.5 · vs NYG

-1136.8%

Caleb Williams

Passing TDs Under 1.5 · vs ATL

+1256.8%

Michael Wilson

Receiving Yards Over 58.5 · vs LA

-1146.8%

Javonte Williams

Receptions Over 2.5 · vs GB

-1236.9%

Showing 120 of 400.

3,344 further props carry only one posted side and cannot be de-vigged, so they are not listed. Anytime touchdown is the biggest of them.

What this does not tell you

  • It is not a prediction. Clearing the threshold means the boosted price beats the market's own fair estimate. It does not mean the player will do the thing.
  • Anytime TD is de-vigged differently. It has no opposing price, so instead of pairing two sides we normalise the whole field: DraftKings prices every plausible scorer, and those prices are scaled so they sum to the number of scorers a game like this actually produces — measured at 4.07 on average across 1,845 games, rising about one per ten points of total. Rows using it are tagged TD field.
  • That method flatters longshots. Scaling the field proportionally is known to under-correct long prices, so for a +900 anytime scorer the figure shown is a floor — the true requirement is higher, not lower.
  • 3,344 props still have no fair price. The 2+ and 3+ touchdown ladders and anything else posted on one side only. Their fields sum to a different quantity that would need its own measurement, and guessing it would be worse than leaving them out.
  • One book. The fair price comes from DraftKings' own two sides, not a multi-book consensus. It measures the boost against that book's margin, not against the sharpest number in the market.