Bobby'sSports Analytics · NFL
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NFL
NE
New England Patriots
CHI
Chicago Bears
@

Thursday, October 22 at 8:15 PM EDT

NE

+1.5

+105

Total

48.5

CHI

-1.5

-125

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.

SpreadNE +1.5-110
SpreadCHI -1.5-110
TotalOver 48.5-105
TotalUnder 48.5-115
MoneylineNE to win+105
MoneylineCHI to win-125

How games at these numbers have gone

  • Spread 1.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 1,487 games since 1999 the favorite covered 49.8% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.3–52.4%) is taken into account.
  • Total 48.5 — spread in the 0-3 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 48.7% of the time across 1,480 of them.

Last three seasons

NE

24-17-2 ATS · 24-19 SU · 25-18 O/U

13-9 ATS home

CHI

22-16-3 ATS · 20-21 SU · 17-24 O/U

14-6-2 ATS home

Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.

The Read

Chicago Bears open a 1.5-point favorite over New England Patriots — about 56% implied to win outright. The 48.5 total prices it near 25–24, one of the week's higher totals.

New England Patriots went 14–3 in 2025 — #2 of 32 by point differential (+10.0/g), but +1.5 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.

Chicago Bears went 11–6 in 2025 — #16 of 32 by point differential (+1.5/g), but +1.9 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.

New England Patriots face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #6).

2025 team profiles

New England Patriots

2025 record14-3Point diff / game+10.0Pythag wins (rank)12.5 (#2)2026 SOS rank#6

Chicago Bears

2025 record11-6Point diff / game+1.5Pythag wins (rank)9.1 (#16)2026 SOS rank#1

Props on the board — NE @ CHI

Facts for this game

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