Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM EDT
SF
-4.5
-218
Total
49.5
ATL
+4.5
+180
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 4.5 sits half a point past 4, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
- Spread 4.5 — the 4-6 point band. In 1,063 games since 1999 the favorite covered 49.2% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–52.2%) is taken into account.
- Total 49.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,584 of them.
Last three seasons
SF
21-20 ATS · 24-17 SU · 24-16 O/U
17-11 ATS as a favorite
ATL
17-22 ATS · 18-21 SU · 18-21 O/U
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
San Francisco 49ers open a 4.5-point favorite over Atlanta Falcons — about 69% implied to win outright. The 49.5 total prices it near 27–23, one of the week's higher totals.
San Francisco 49ers went 12–5 in 2025 — #8 of 32 by point differential (+3.9/g), but +1.9 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
Atlanta Falcons went 8–9 in 2025 — #21 of 32 by point differential (-2.8/g).
Atlanta Falcons drew one of the softest 2026 slates (strength of schedule #28).
2025 team profiles
San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons