Research

We publish what we tested

Most sites selling picks won't tell you when a market is already priced correctly. We backtest our own angles against the close, and we say so either way.

Live studies

Recomputed from our game logs · every player measured against their own baseline

NBATeams lose more

NBA back-to-backs: teams feel it, scorers don't

Do teams lose more on the second night of a back-to-back — and do their players score less?

46.5%

team win rate on back-to-backs (vs 50.8% rested)

Back-to-backRested

Team win rate46.5%50.8%

Player pts vs own avg+0.11−0.01

Games8913,969

Teams won 46.5% of back-to-back second nights and 50.8% otherwise (z = -2.4). But players who suited up scored +0.11 points vs their own average (z = 1.4) — no drop. The likely reason is load management: the most tired players sit, so they never appear in the back-to-back sample at all.

How we measured it · 36,382 player-games · 4,860 team-games▾

NBA 2024-25 and 2025-26 regular seasons. Back-to-back = team played the previous day (from each team's game dates). Player rows: 15+ minutes, players with 20+ such games, scored against their own season average.

NBAReal home edge

Home court in the NBA

How often does the home team win, and by how many points, over a full season?

55.4%

home team win rate

HomeAway

Win rate55.4%44.6%

Points per game116.5114.7

Home teams won 679 of 1225 games (55.4%, z = 3.8) and outscored visitors 116.5 to 114.7 per game — about 1.7 points, on average.

How we measured it · 1,225 games▾

Every regular-season game of the most recently completed NBA season; home/away read from each row's MATCHUP field ('vs.' = home, '@' = away); final scores are the sum of every logged player's points.

Market backtests

Already live · deepest example today

What We've Measured — College Football

Four angles we tested and killed on our own archive of FBS results and closing lines — SP+ ratings vs the spread (49.8% ATS on 1,589 games), wind, rain and altitude on totals. Published with the same numbers whether they worked or not.

Read the full page →

Other written studies

College Football — SP+, wind, rain, altitude

The angles above, in full: methodology, sample sizes, and the ones that didn't beat the closing line.

NFL — Numbers

Team and player trends pulled from the same gamelog archive our NFL picks are graded against.

WNBA — Numbers

Team and player trends from the WNBA box-score archive, same treatment.

Our track record

MLB — Results

Every MLB pick we've published, graded win or loss, in full.

NFL — Results

Every NFL pick we've published, graded win or loss, in full.

WNBA — Results

Every WNBA pick we've published, graded win or loss, in full.

MLB — NRFI record

Every no-run-first-inning pick, graded, against the league base rate.

MLB — Closing line value

Whether the line moved our way after we made the pick — the standard sportsbooks themselves use to judge a bettor.

Descriptive market statistics, computed daily

64%

of MLB props priced +200 or longer

Of 1,227,167 graded props this season, 782,904 closed at +200 or longer. Staked flat at one unit each, that group returned -29.7%. This describes what the shelf has done, not a strategy.

mlb · computed from props_resolved

CFB is our deepest write-up because that market has been backtested most extensively — but it's not the only one. NFL and WNBA have their own published number studies above, and our full pick history is public too. Same standard everywhere: publish it whether it worked or not.