Research

We publish what we tested

Most sites selling picks won't tell you when a market is already priced correctly. We backtest our own angles against the close, and we say so either way.

Live studies

Recomputed from our game logs · every player measured against their own baseline

NFLGarbage time is a myth

Fantasy points follow the scoreboard

How much does a player's fantasy output move with the final score — and is 'garbage time' real?

5.3 pts

QB swing, blowout win vs blowout loss

Win by 8+Lose by 8+

QB+1.75−3.51

RB+1.86−1.93

WR+0.37−1.00

TE−0.00−0.65

Against their own averages, quarterbacks score +1.7 PPR in wins by 8+ and −3.5 in losses by 8+. The popular idea that receivers pile up points in blowout losses doesn't hold: WRs score −1.00 in those games (z = -9.8). Read this as association, not cause — a quiet offense is often WHY a team loses big.

How we measured it · 36,316 player-games▾

Every regular-season game for QB/RB/WR/TE averaging 5+ PPR, joined to the final score (nfl_schedule; moved franchises mapped). Values are PPR points relative to the player's own season average.

NFLTargets win

Targets or yards: which predicts next week?

If you only know one number from last week, is a receiver's target count or his yardage more useful?

0.57 vs 0.41

week-to-week correlation, targets vs yards

0.57

Targets

0.41

Receiving yards

Correlation with the same stat next weekaxis starts at 0.27

A receiver's targets correlate 0.57 with his targets the next week; yards only 0.41. Targets measure his role, which is stable; yards add the noise of how each catch plays out. For judging a receiver on one week, look at volume, not production.

How we measured it · 31,107 week pairs▾

Consecutive regular-season games for every WR/TE with 8+ games in a season, 2015–2025. Pearson correlation of this week's value with next week's.

NFLNo carryover

Is a receiver ever 'hot'?

After a receiver beats his own yardage average, is he more likely to do it again the next week?

+0.2 pts

next-week edge after a big week

42.5%

After above-avg week

42.3%

After below-avg week

Next week above own averageaxis starts at 40.2%

After a week above his own receiving average, a WR/TE topped it again 42.5% of the time; after a week below it, 42.3% (z = 0.3). Last week's yardage tells you nothing about this week beyond who the player already is.

How we measured it · 15,409 week pairs · 2015–2025▾

Every WR/TE regular-season game 2015–2025; average is the player's own for that season (15+ games). Consecutive games only.

NFLShort weeks don't hurt

Do short weeks hurt fantasy players?

On a Thursday game after a Sunday, do players produce less than they normally would? And what about coming off a bye?

+0.29 PPR

on short weeks vs own average

vs own avgGames

Short week (≤5 days)+0.292,324

Normal (6–8 days)+0.0226,951

After bye (9+ days)−0.274,780

On short weeks (5 or fewer days since the last game), players scored +0.29 PPR points against their own average (z = 2.0); coming off a bye or other long break, −0.27 (z = -2.8). Both effects are small — a fraction of a point — and the popular idea that Thursday games crush fantasy output doesn't show up.

How we measured it · 34,055 player-games▾

QB/RB/WR/TE averaging 5+ PPR, regular seasons 2015–2025. Rest = days since the team's previous game (nfl_schedule). Each game is scored against the player's own season average, then adjusted for that week's league-wide average so early-season vs late-season scoring can't masquerade as a rest effect.

NFLReal, worth ~2 points

How many points is home field worth?

Do home teams actually outscore visitors, and by how much?

+1.73

home scoring margin, points per game

HomeAway

Points per game23.721.9

Margin+1.73—

Across every regular-season game with a final score, home teams have scored 23.7 points a game against 21.9 for visitors — a margin of +1.73 (z = 6.6). That's real and consistent, but it's a fraction of a field goal, not a talent gap.

How we measured it · 2,943 games▾

Every NFL regular-season game with a final score in nfl_schedule (2015–present). Margin is the paired difference (home minus away) per game.

Market backtests

Already live · deepest example today

What We've Measured — College Football

Four angles we tested and killed on our own archive of FBS results and closing lines — SP+ ratings vs the spread (49.8% ATS on 1,589 games), wind, rain and altitude on totals. Published with the same numbers whether they worked or not.

Read the full page →

Other written studies

College Football — SP+, wind, rain, altitude

The angles above, in full: methodology, sample sizes, and the ones that didn't beat the closing line.

NFL — Numbers

Team and player trends pulled from the same gamelog archive our NFL picks are graded against.

WNBA — Numbers

Team and player trends from the WNBA box-score archive, same treatment.

Our track record

MLB — Results

Every MLB pick we've published, graded win or loss, in full.

NFL — Results

Every NFL pick we've published, graded win or loss, in full.

WNBA — Results

Every WNBA pick we've published, graded win or loss, in full.

MLB — NRFI record

Every no-run-first-inning pick, graded, against the league base rate.

MLB — Closing line value

Whether the line moved our way after we made the pick — the standard sportsbooks themselves use to judge a bettor.

Descriptive market statistics, computed daily

64%

of MLB props priced +200 or longer

Of 1,227,167 graded props this season, 782,904 closed at +200 or longer. Staked flat at one unit each, that group returned -29.7%. This describes what the shelf has done, not a strategy.

mlb · computed from props_resolved

CFB is our deepest write-up because that market has been backtested most extensively — but it's not the only one. NFL and WNBA have their own published number studies above, and our full pick history is public too. Same standard everywhere: publish it whether it worked or not.