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NCAABBMatchup
Illinois St

Illinois St

23-12
VS
Auburn

Auburn

20-16
Bet on DraftKings
Bobby's PickIllinois St
Confidence55%

Illinois St has the edge based on the statistical profile, but this could be competitive. Look for their defensive edge to be the difference.

Market sees this as a coin-flip (29% vs 71%).
Illinois St holds a +3.4 scoring margin edge.
Bet on DraftKings

DK DraftKings Odds

Moneyline & Implied Win Probability
Illinois St+240
29.4% implied
Auburn-298
74.9% implied
SpreadAuburn -6.5
-115
Total (O/U)149.5
O -110U -110

AI Matchup Analysis

Bobby's PickIllinois St
Confidence55%
Key Rationale
Market sees this as a coin-flip (29% vs 71%).
Illinois St holds a +3.4 scoring margin edge.

Illinois St (+12.5 scoring margin) faces Auburn (+9.1 scoring margin) in a matchup that projects to around 147 total points. Illinois St holds statistical advantages in 1 of 2 key categories.

•Auburn averages 7.6 more points per game, giving them a significant offensive advantage.
•Illinois St holds opponents to 62.7 PPG, suggesting a strong defensive scheme that could disrupt the opponent's rhythm.
•Auburn is the moderate favorite at 75% implied probability. This is expected to be a competitive game.
Prediction

Illinois St has the edge based on the statistical profile, but this could be competitive. Look for their defensive edge to be the difference.

B+
Illinois St Grade
B+
Auburn Grade
B+
Illinois St Grade
29%
Illinois StWin Prob
vs
75%
AuburnWin Prob
B+
Auburn Grade
Illinois St Scoring Trend
Auburn Scoring Trend

Pace & Efficiency

Expected Pace78.9Up-Tempo
Illinois St+12.5Scoring Margin
Auburn+9.1Scoring Margin
Offense75.1 PPG
Offense82.7 PPG
Defense62.7 Opp PPG
Defense73.7 Opp PPG

Shooting & Box Score

46.7%FG%45.7%
35.2%3P%33.8%
70.2%FT%74.4%
35.7RPG36.4
13.5APG12.7
11.3TOV10.2

Total Projection

Projected Total147.1
Illinois St: 74.4Auburn: 72.7
DK Total Line149.5
Projection Edge-2.4 (Line is fair)

Key Matchup Factors

Illinois St1 advantage
1 advantageAuburn
62.7 Opp PPG
Defensive Edge
73.7 Opp PPG
75.1 PPG
Scoring Advantage
82.7 PPG

Statistical Comparison

Illinois StIllinois St
STAT
AuburnAuburn
75.1
PPG
82.7
62.7
Opp PPG
73.7
35.7
RPG
36.4
13.5
APG
12.7
46.7%
FG%
45.7%
35.2%
3P%
33.8%
70.2%
FT%
74.4%
5.7
SPG
7.5
2.3
BPG
4.2
11.3
TOV
10.2

Illinois StIllinois St Recent Games

W@DaytonDayton
61-55
W@Wake ForestWake Forest
78-75
WvsKent StateKent State
79-58
3-0 SU

AuburnAuburn Recent Games

WvsNevadaNevada
75-69
WvsSeattle USeattle U
91-85
WvsSouth AlabamaSouth Alabama
78-67
3-0 SU
Illinois St

Illinois St

23-12
Strengths
Strong scoring offense
Strong defensive team
Full Team Profile
Auburn

Auburn

20-16
Strengths
Elite scoring offense
Weaknesses
Defensive concerns
Full Team Profile