Deep dive into teams, matchups, and tournament dynamics
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Only two 16-seeds have ever beaten a 1-seed: UMBC over Virginia (2018) and FDU over Purdue (2023). These remain the rarest upsets in tournament history.
15-seeds pull off an upset roughly once every two tournaments. Saint Peter's memorable 2022 run to the Elite Eight started with a 15-over-2 upset.
14-seeds win about one in seven matchups. These upsets often come from mid-major conference champs with strong defensive identities.
Over one in five 13-seeds advance. The 4-13 matchup is historically one of the most fertile grounds for bracket-busting picks.
The classic upset pick. 12-seeds win more than a third of these games, making it the most popular Cinderella choice in bracket pools.
11-seeds (including play-in winners) are historically dangerous. Loyola Chicago (2018) and VCU (2011) rode this seed to the Final Four.
Nearly a coin flip. 10-seeds are often strong at-large teams that underperformed expectations during the regular season.
The closest to a true toss-up in the tournament. Seeding barely matters here -- pick the team you believe in.
| # | Team | Conf | Net | PPG | Opp PPG | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #4 | Duke35-3 | ACC | 82.3 | 62.3 | +20.0 | 49.0 | 35.1 | 72.4 | 40.3 | 16.9 |
| #10 | St. John's30-7 | Big East | 81.6 | 64.6 | +17.0 | 45.4 | 33.2 | 72.7 | 38.6 | 16.3 |
| #1 | Michigan37-3 | Big Ten | 86.8 | 70.1 | +16.7 | 50.5 | 36.0 | 74.7 | 40.0 | 18.5 |
| #8 | Iowa State29-8 | Big 12 | 81.8 | 65.8 | +16.0 | 49.0 | 38.7 | 67.2 | 35.6 | 17.2 |
| #3 | Arizona36-3 | Big 12 | 86.1 | 70.2 | +15.9 | 50.2 | 36.0 | 73.4 | 42.5 | 16.9 |
| #9 | Florida27-8 | SEC | 86.8 | 73.9 | +12.9 | 47.8 | 30.8 | 71.0 | 45.4 | 16.6 |
| #5 | Illinois28-9 | Big Ten | 84.4 | 73.3 | +11.1 | 46.3 | 34.7 | 78.9 | 40.7 | 14.7 |
| #12 | Tennessee25-12 | SEC | 79.5 | 68.4 | +11.1 | 46.3 | 33.4 | 69.4 | 42.6 | 16.9 |
| #2 | UConn34-6 | Big East | 77.5 | 66.5 | +11.0 | 48.2 | 35.2 | 71.6 | 36.6 | 18.4 |
| #21 | Texas Tech23-11 | Big 12 | 80.4 | 69.7 | +10.7 | 46.7 | 39.3 | 71.5 | 36.9 | 15.8 |
| #14 | Nebraska28-7 | Big Ten | 77.3 | 66.7 | +10.6 | 46.5 | 35.3 | 75.0 | 34.9 | 18.0 |
| #7 | Houston30-7 | Big 12 | 77.1 | 66.9 | +10.2 | 45.0 | 34.9 | 77.2 | 36.6 | 14.7 |
| #17 | Virginia30-6 | ACC | 80.6 | 70.7 | +9.9 | 46.3 | 35.9 | 72.6 | 40.2 | 16.6 |
| #23 | Louisville24-11 | ACC | 84.8 | 75.7 | +9.1 | 47.0 | 35.7 | 76.9 | 38.5 | 17.1 |
| 15 | Ohio State21-13 | Big Ten | 79.8 | 71.5 | +8.3 | 49.3 | 36.0 | 77.5 | 33.2 | 14.4 |
| #24 | Miami26-9 | ACC | 81.9 | 73.9 | +8.0 | 50.1 | 34.7 | 68.5 | 37.3 | 16.1 |
| #19 | Vanderbilt27-9 | SEC | 86.4 | 78.6 | +7.8 | 47.5 | 35.5 | 79.3 | 35.3 | 16.4 |
| #6 | Purdue30-9 | Big Ten | 81.7 | 74.0 | +7.7 | 49.9 | 37.9 | 74.3 | 35.4 | 19.9 |
| 19 | Georgia22-11 | SEC | 89.8 | 82.5 | +7.3 | 47.1 | 34.1 | 75.4 | 38.2 | 14.9 |
| #16 | Alabama25-10 | SEC | 91.7 | 84.5 | +7.2 | 45.8 | 35.8 | 76.5 | 40.6 | 16.1 |
| 21 |  Oklahoma21-16 | SEC | 82.7 | 75.6 | +7.1 | 47.0 | 36.8 | 74.5 | 35.8 | 14.3 |
| 22 | North Carolina24-9 | ACC | 79.8 | 72.9 | +6.9 | 47.3 | 34.5 | 68.4 | 38.0 | 16.0 |
| #25 | Wisconsin24-11 | Big Ten | 83.0 | 76.2 | +6.8 | 45.0 | 36.1 | 78.6 | 35.5 | 16.0 |
| 24 |  Providence15-18 | Big East | 85.3 | 79.0 | +6.3 | 47.6 | 36.4 | 75.7 | 38.5 | 14.0 |
| 25 |  Florida State18-15 | ACC | 80.4 | 74.2 | +6.2 | 44.0 | 33.1 | 71.3 | 35.3 | 14.3 |
| 26 |  SMU20-14 | ACC | 84.2 | 78.2 | +6.0 | 49.0 | 37.4 | 74.1 | 37.7 | 16.9 |
| 27 | TCU23-12 | Big 12 | 78.3 | 72.3 | +6.0 | 44.8 | 33.1 | 70.8 | 36.2 | 15.6 |
| 28 | BYU23-12 | Big 12 | 83.9 | 78.4 | +5.5 | 47.7 | 34.9 | 74.6 | 38.3 | 13.5 |
| 29 |  Stanford20-13 | ACC | 76.0 | 71.0 | +5.0 | 43.8 | 35.6 | 73.1 | 33.7 | 11.9 |
| 30 |  Marquette12-20 | Big East | 75.2 | 70.2 | +5.0 | 43.8 | 31.7 | 67.5 | 34.2 | 15.5 |
| 31 | Cincinnati18-15 | Big 12 | 73.1 | 68.8 | +4.3 | 43.1 | 33.9 | 68.1 | 37.3 | 16.6 |
| #15 | Iowa24-13 | Big Ten | 75.2 | 71.0 | +4.2 | 49.1 | 35.7 | 77.0 | 29.4 | 15.3 |
| 33 | Texas A&M22-12 | SEC | 87.7 | 83.6 | +4.1 | 45.8 | 36.2 | 73.7 | 37.7 | 18.1 |
| 34 |  Wake Forest18-17 | ACC | 78.8 | 74.8 | +4.0 | 45.0 | 34.4 | 77.4 | 33.2 | 14.3 |
| 35 | UCLA24-12 | Big Ten | 77.7 | 73.8 | +3.9 | 47.1 | 38.2 | 76.7 | 32.3 | 16.3 |
| 36 |  Seton Hall21-12 | Big East | 70.3 | 67.1 | +3.2 | 43.5 | 30.5 | 72.3 | 35.8 | 13.1 |
| #22 | Texas21-15 | SEC | 83.8 | 81.0 | +2.8 | 48.6 | 35.3 | 75.2 | 37.7 | 12.3 |
| 38 |  Northwestern15-19 | Big Ten | 73.1 | 70.4 | +2.7 | 46.1 | 33.0 | 75.1 | 30.5 | 17.2 |
| 39 |  Washington16-17 | Big Ten | 77.1 | 74.4 | +2.7 | 45.8 | 31.5 | 76.4 | 37.2 | 13.9 |
| 40 | Indiana18-14 | Big Ten | 78.2 | 75.7 | +2.5 | 47.4 | 34.7 | 78.0 | 32.4 | 16.6 |
| 41 |  West Virginia21-14 | Big 12 | 69.2 | 66.9 | +2.3 | 44.1 | 32.8 | 67.7 | 34.6 | 12.8 |
| 42 |  Virginia Tech19-13 | ACC | 78.8 | 76.5 | +2.3 | 45.2 | 35.5 | 74.3 | 34.8 | 14.4 |
| 43 |  Minnesota15-18 | Big Ten | 70.0 | 67.9 | +2.1 | 46.0 | 34.8 | 70.0 | 31.0 | 17.4 |
| 44 | Villanova24-9 | Big East | 77.2 | 75.3 | +1.9 | 45.7 | 35.3 | 69.4 | 34.5 | 15.5 |
| #11 | Michigan State27-8 | Big Ten | 78.9 | 77.2 | +1.7 | 47.1 | 35.9 | 76.3 | 39.8 | 18.5 |
| 46 |  Missouri20-13 | SEC | 79.7 | 78.2 | +1.5 | 49.0 | 35.0 | 68.6 | 35.6 | 14.1 |
| #20 | Kansas24-11 | Big 12 | 75.6 | 74.2 | +1.4 | 45.3 | 35.0 | 76.7 | 38.8 | 14.3 |
| #13 | Arkansas28-9 | SEC | 89.9 | 88.6 | +1.3 | 50.0 | 38.9 | 74.7 | 36.1 | 17.0 |
| 49 | Clemson24-11 | ACC | 74.1 | 73.0 | +1.1 | 45.3 | 34.1 | 72.6 | 34.3 | 12.8 |
| 50 | Auburn22-16 | SEC | 82.7 | 81.6 | +1.1 | 45.7 | 33.8 | 74.4 | 36.4 | 12.7 |
| 51 | Kentucky22-14 | SEC | 80.8 | 79.8 | +1.0 | 46.4 | 34.1 | 72.8 | 37.5 | 16.0 |
| 52 |  Creighton16-18 | Big East | 75.1 | 74.3 | +0.8 | 44.8 | 34.5 | 76.0 | 35.2 | 15.5 |
| 53 |  Georgetown16-18 | Big East | 73.6 | 72.8 | +0.8 | 44.0 | 31.8 | 74.0 | 35.6 | 14.8 |
| 54 |  Baylor17-17 | Big 12 | 82.6 | 81.9 | +0.7 | 47.9 | 34.5 | 73.2 | 36.8 | 15.8 |
| 55 |  DePaul16-16 | Big East | 70.3 | 69.9 | +0.3 | 43.5 | 32.5 | 69.2 | 33.3 | 15.0 |
| 56 |  Arizona State17-16 | Big 12 | 76.3 | 76.0 | +0.3 | 44.7 | 33.4 | 75.3 | 33.2 | 13.7 |
| 57 |  Butler16-16 | Big East | 79.4 | 79.4 | -0.0 | 45.2 | 32.7 | 71.9 | 37.8 | 15.5 |
| 58 |  UCF21-12 | Big 12 | 81.0 | 81.3 | -0.3 | 46.6 | 36.2 | 74.0 | 37.2 | 15.8 |
| 59 | Utah10-22 | Big 12 | 74.3 | 74.9 | -0.6 | 45.4 | 35.3 | 73.8 | 33.6 | 13.7 |
| 60 | Cal22-12 | ACC | 77.9 | 79.1 | -1.2 | 44.3 | 36.1 | 77.9 | 34.8 | 13.7 |
| 61 |  Maryland12-21 | Big Ten | 69.7 | 71.0 | -1.3 | 40.7 | 31.7 | 72.2 | 35.4 | 10.5 |
| 62 |  Oregon12-20 | Big Ten | 70.8 | 72.6 | -1.8 | 42.6 | 32.1 | 73.0 | 34.4 | 14.3 |
| 63 |  Rutgers14-20 | Big Ten | 70.6 | 72.5 | -1.9 | 41.8 | 32.8 | 74.1 | 32.7 | 12.3 |
| 64 | NC State20-14 | ACC | 83.7 | 85.9 | -2.2 | 46.8 | 38.8 | 76.8 | 34.5 | 15.6 |
| 65 |  Colorado17-16 | Big 12 | 80.0 | 82.4 | -2.4 | 47.0 | 35.3 | 75.7 | 34.3 | 15.7 |
| 66 |  Pittsburgh13-20 | ACC | 70.5 | 73.9 | -3.4 | 43.9 | 33.4 | 67.4 | 34.5 | 13.2 |
| 67 |  Oklahoma State20-15 | Big 12 | 84.3 | 88.3 | -4.0 | 46.0 | 33.8 | 75.1 | 38.0 | 14.8 |
| 68 |  South Carolina13-19 | SEC | 74.9 | 80.0 | -5.1 | 43.4 | 31.1 | 78.1 | 32.6 | 13.3 |
| 69 |  USC18-14 | Big Ten | 78.6 | 83.7 | -5.1 | 45.4 | 31.4 | 72.4 | 36.5 | 15.3 |
| 70 |  Kansas State12-20 | Big 12 | 79.6 | 85.5 | -5.9 | 45.9 | 36.4 | 71.0 | 34.0 | 16.8 |
| 71 |  LSU15-17 | SEC | 81.4 | 87.6 | -6.2 | 47.1 | 33.1 | 76.4 | 36.9 | 14.7 |
| 72 |  Ole Miss15-20 | SEC | 75.9 | 82.2 | -6.3 | 44.6 | 33.2 | 74.9 | 34.3 | 13.5 |
| 73 |  Penn State12-20 | Big Ten | 73.7 | 81.5 | -7.8 | 46.9 | 32.4 | 75.0 | 29.0 | 12.7 |
| 74 |  Boston College11-20 | ACC | 67.4 | 75.5 | -8.1 | 40.8 | 29.4 | 65.3 | 36.6 | 11.3 |
| 75 |  Syracuse15-17 | ACC | 75.0 | 83.7 | -8.7 | 46.5 | 32.9 | 64.8 | 34.2 | 12.8 |
| 76 |  Notre Dame13-18 | ACC | 74.5 | 83.3 | -8.8 | 44.5 | 35.6 | 69.7 | 36.6 | 12.3 |
| 77 |  Xavier15-18 | Big East | 78.4 | 87.3 | -8.9 | 44.4 | 36.5 | 72.9 | 34.3 | 17.4 |
| 78 |  Mississippi State13-19 | SEC | 77.6 | 89.8 | -12.2 | 45.0 | 32.4 | 66.0 | 38.2 | 12.8 |
| 79 |  Georgia Tech11-20 | ACC | 73.8 | 86.4 | -12.6 | 44.2 | 35.1 | 71.1 | 37.1 | 15.8 |
AAC