Tournament Analysis
Deep dive into teams, matchups, and tournament dynamics
Cinderella Watch
(32 dark horses)Upset Alert
(0 candidates)No upcoming upset candidates available yet. Check back once games are scheduled.
Historical Seed Matchup Rates
Only two 16-seeds have ever beaten a 1-seed: UMBC over Virginia (2018) and FDU over Purdue (2023). These remain the rarest upsets in tournament history.
15-seeds pull off an upset roughly once every two tournaments. Saint Peter's memorable 2022 run to the Elite Eight started with a 15-over-2 upset.
14-seeds win about one in seven matchups. These upsets often come from mid-major conference champs with strong defensive identities.
Over one in five 13-seeds advance. The 4-13 matchup is historically one of the most fertile grounds for bracket-busting picks.
The classic upset pick. 12-seeds win more than a third of these games, making it the most popular Cinderella choice in bracket pools.
11-seeds (including play-in winners) are historically dangerous. Loyola Chicago (2018) and VCU (2011) rode this seed to the Final Four.
Nearly a coin flip. 10-seeds are often strong at-large teams that underperformed expectations during the regular season.
The closest to a true toss-up in the tournament. Seeding barely matters here -- pick the team you believe in.
Conference Tracker
(31 conferences in the field)



































































Power Rankings
(79 teams)| # | Team | Conf | Net | PPG | Opp PPG | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ![]() Providence15-18 | Big East | 85.3 | - | +85.3 | 47.6 | 36.4 | 75.7 | 38.5 | 14.0 |
| 2 | ![]() Oklahoma19-15 | SEC | 82.7 | - | +82.7 | 47.0 | 36.8 | 74.5 | 35.8 | 14.3 |
| 3 | ![]() Baylor16-16 | Big 12 | 82.6 | - | +82.6 | 47.9 | 34.5 | 73.2 | 36.8 | 15.8 |
| 4 | ![]() LSU15-17 | SEC | 81.4 | - | +81.4 | 47.1 | 33.1 | 76.4 | 36.9 | 14.7 |
| 5 | ![]() Florida State18-15 | ACC | 80.4 | - | +80.4 | 44.0 | 33.1 | 71.3 | 35.3 | 14.3 |
| 6 | ![]() Colorado17-15 | Big 12 | 80.0 | - | +80.0 | 47.0 | 35.3 | 75.7 | 34.3 | 15.7 |
| 7 | ![]() Kansas State12-20 | Big 12 | 79.6 | - | +79.6 | 45.9 | 36.4 | 71.0 | 34.0 | 16.8 |
| 8 | ![]() Butler16-16 | Big East | 79.4 | - | +79.4 | 45.2 | 32.7 | 71.9 | 37.8 | 15.5 |
| 9 | ![]() Virginia Tech19-13 | ACC | 78.8 | - | +78.8 | 45.2 | 35.5 | 74.3 | 34.8 | 14.4 |
| 10 | ![]() USC18-14 | Big Ten | 78.6 | - | +78.6 | 45.4 | 31.4 | 72.4 | 36.5 | 15.3 |
| 11 | ![]() Xavier15-18 | Big East | 78.4 | - | +78.4 | 44.4 | 36.5 | 72.9 | 34.3 | 17.4 |
| 12 | ![]() Indiana18-14 | Big Ten | 78.2 | - | +78.2 | 47.4 | 34.7 | 78.0 | 32.4 | 16.6 |
| 13 | ![]() Mississippi State13-19 | SEC | 77.6 | - | +77.6 | 45.0 | 32.4 | 66.0 | 38.2 | 12.8 |
| 14 | ![]() Washington16-17 | Big Ten | 77.1 | - | +77.1 | 45.8 | 31.5 | 76.4 | 37.2 | 13.9 |
| 15 | ![]() Arizona State17-16 | Big 12 | 76.3 | - | +76.3 | 44.7 | 33.4 | 75.3 | 33.2 | 13.7 |
| 16 | ![]() Stanford20-12 | ACC | 76.0 | - | +76.0 | 43.8 | 35.6 | 73.1 | 33.7 | 11.9 |
| 17 | ![]() Ole Miss15-20 | SEC | 75.9 | - | +75.9 | 44.6 | 33.2 | 74.9 | 34.3 | 13.5 |
| 18 | ![]() Marquette12-20 | Big East | 75.2 | - | +75.2 | 43.8 | 31.7 | 67.5 | 34.2 | 15.5 |
| 19 | ![]() Creighton15-17 | Big East | 75.1 | - | +75.1 | 44.8 | 34.5 | 76.0 | 35.2 | 15.5 |
| 20 | ![]() Syracuse15-17 | ACC | 75.0 | - | +75.0 | 46.5 | 32.9 | 64.8 | 34.2 | 12.8 |
| 21 | ![]() South Carolina13-19 | SEC | 74.9 | - | +74.9 | 43.4 | 31.1 | 78.1 | 32.6 | 13.3 |
| 22 | ![]() Notre Dame13-18 | ACC | 74.5 | - | +74.5 | 44.5 | 35.6 | 69.7 | 36.6 | 12.3 |
| 23 | ![]() Utah10-22 | Big 12 | 74.3 | - | +74.3 | 45.4 | 35.3 | 73.8 | 33.6 | 13.7 |
| 24 | ![]() Georgia Tech11-20 | ACC | 73.8 | - | +73.8 | 44.2 | 35.1 | 71.1 | 37.1 | 15.8 |
| 25 | ![]() Penn State12-20 | Big Ten | 73.7 | - | +73.7 | 46.9 | 32.4 | 75.0 | 29.0 | 12.7 |
| 26 | ![]() Georgetown16-18 | Big East | 73.6 | - | +73.6 | 44.0 | 31.8 | 74.0 | 35.6 | 14.8 |
| 27 | ![]() Northwestern15-19 | Big Ten | 73.1 | - | +73.1 | 46.1 | 33.0 | 75.1 | 30.5 | 17.2 |
| 28 | ![]() Cincinnati18-15 | Big 12 | 73.1 | - | +73.1 | 43.1 | 33.9 | 68.1 | 37.3 | 16.6 |
| 29 | ![]() Oregon12-20 | Big Ten | 70.8 | - | +70.8 | 42.6 | 32.1 | 73.0 | 34.4 | 14.3 |
| 30 | ![]() Rutgers14-19 | Big Ten | 70.6 | - | +70.6 | 41.8 | 32.8 | 74.1 | 32.7 | 12.3 |
| 31 | ![]() Pittsburgh13-20 | ACC | 70.5 | - | +70.5 | 43.9 | 33.4 | 67.4 | 34.5 | 13.2 |
| 32 | ![]() Seton Hall21-12 | Big East | 70.3 | - | +70.3 | 43.5 | 30.5 | 72.3 | 35.8 | 13.1 |
| 33 | ![]() DePaul16-16 | Big East | 70.3 | - | +70.3 | 43.5 | 32.5 | 69.2 | 33.3 | 15.0 |
| 34 | ![]() Minnesota15-17 | Big Ten | 70.0 | - | +70.0 | 46.0 | 34.8 | 70.0 | 31.0 | 17.4 |
| 35 | ![]() Maryland12-21 | Big Ten | 69.7 | - | +69.7 | 40.7 | 31.7 | 72.2 | 35.4 | 10.5 |
| 36 | ![]() West Virginia18-14 | Big 12 | 69.2 | - | +69.2 | 44.1 | 32.8 | 67.7 | 34.6 | 12.8 |
| 37 | ![]() Boston College11-20 | ACC | 67.4 | - | +67.4 | 40.8 | 29.4 | 65.3 | 36.6 | 11.3 |
| #13 | ![]() Illinois28-8 | Big Ten | 84.4 | 59.8 | +24.6 | 46.3 | 34.7 | 78.9 | 40.7 | 14.7 |
| #4 | ![]() Florida27-8 | SEC | 86.8 | 64.0 | +22.8 | 47.8 | 30.8 | 71.0 | 45.4 | 16.6 |
| #5 | ![]() Houston30-7 | Big 12 | 77.1 | 56.3 | +20.8 | 45.0 | 34.9 | 77.2 | 36.6 | 14.7 |
| 41 | ![]() Texas A&M22-12 | SEC | 87.7 | 69.0 | +18.7 | 45.8 | 36.2 | 73.7 | 37.7 | 18.1 |
| #2 | ![]() Arizona36-2 | Big 12 | 86.1 | 69.0 | +17.1 | 50.2 | 36.0 | 73.4 | 42.5 | 16.9 |
| #18 | ![]() Alabama25-10 | SEC | 91.7 | 75.0 | +16.7 | 45.8 | 35.8 | 76.5 | 40.6 | 16.1 |
| 44 | ![]() NC State20-14 | ACC | 83.7 | 68.0 | +15.7 | 46.8 | 38.8 | 76.8 | 34.5 | 15.6 |
| #10 | ![]() St. John's30-7 | Big East | 81.6 | 66.0 | +15.6 | 45.4 | 33.2 | 72.7 | 38.6 | 16.3 |
| #16 | ![]() Vanderbilt27-9 | SEC | 86.4 | 71.0 | +15.4 | 47.5 | 35.5 | 79.3 | 35.3 | 16.4 |
| #1 | ![]() Duke35-3 | ACC | 82.3 | 67.8 | +14.5 | 49.0 | 35.1 | 72.4 | 40.3 | 16.9 |
| #3 | ![]() Michigan35-3 | Big Ten | 86.8 | 72.8 | +14.1 | 50.5 | 36.0 | 74.7 | 40.0 | 18.5 |
| 49 | ![]() Ohio State21-13 | Big Ten | 79.8 | 66.0 | +13.8 | 49.3 | 36.0 | 77.5 | 33.2 | 14.4 |
| 50 | ![]() Texas21-15 | SEC | 83.8 | 71.0 | +12.8 | 48.6 | 35.3 | 75.2 | 37.7 | 12.3 |
| #17 | ![]() Kansas24-11 | Big 12 | 75.6 | 63.5 | +12.1 | 45.3 | 35.0 | 76.7 | 38.8 | 14.3 |
| #15 | ![]() Nebraska28-7 | Big Ten | 77.3 | 65.3 | +11.9 | 46.5 | 35.3 | 75.0 | 34.9 | 18.0 |
| #7 | ![]() UConn33-5 | Big East | 77.5 | 65.8 | +11.8 | 48.2 | 35.2 | 71.6 | 36.6 | 18.4 |
| #11 | ![]() Michigan State27-8 | Big Ten | 78.9 | 67.7 | +11.3 | 47.1 | 35.9 | 76.3 | 39.8 | 18.5 |
| #6 | ![]() Iowa State29-8 | Big 12 | 81.8 | 71.0 | +10.8 | 49.0 | 38.7 | 67.2 | 35.6 | 17.2 |
| #25 | ![]() Miami26-9 | ACC | 81.9 | 72.5 | +9.4 | 50.1 | 34.7 | 68.5 | 37.3 | 16.1 |
| 57 | ![]() Auburn20-16 | SEC | 82.7 | 73.7 | +9.1 | 45.7 | 33.8 | 74.4 | 36.4 | 12.7 |
| #23 | ![]() Tennessee25-12 | SEC | 79.5 | 71.3 | +8.2 | 46.3 | 33.4 | 69.4 | 42.6 | 16.9 |
| #8 | ![]() Purdue30-9 | Big Ten | 81.7 | 74.0 | +7.7 | 49.9 | 37.9 | 74.3 | 35.4 | 19.9 |
| 60 | ![]() Clemson24-11 | ACC | 74.1 | 67.0 | +7.1 | 45.3 | 34.1 | 72.6 | 34.3 | 12.8 |
| #23 | ![]() Louisville24-11 | ACC | 84.8 | 78.0 | +6.8 | 47.0 | 35.7 | 76.9 | 38.5 | 17.1 |
| 62 | ![]() Iowa24-13 | Big Ten | 75.2 | 68.8 | +6.5 | 49.1 | 35.7 | 77.0 | 29.4 | 15.3 |
| 63 | ![]() UCF21-12 | Big 12 | 81.0 | 75.0 | +6.0 | 46.6 | 36.2 | 74.0 | 37.2 | 15.8 |
| 64 | ![]() TCU23-12 | Big 12 | 78.3 | 72.5 | +5.8 | 44.8 | 33.1 | 70.8 | 36.2 | 15.6 |
| 65 | ![]() UCLA24-12 | Big Ten | 77.7 | 72.0 | +5.7 | 47.1 | 38.2 | 76.7 | 32.3 | 16.3 |
| 66 | ![]() BYU23-12 | Big 12 | 83.9 | 79.0 | +4.9 | 47.7 | 34.9 | 74.6 | 38.3 | 13.5 |
| #9 | ![]() Virginia30-6 | ACC | 80.6 | 76.0 | +4.6 | 46.3 | 35.9 | 72.6 | 40.2 | 16.6 |
| 68 | ![]() Wake Forest18-17 | ACC | 78.8 | 75.0 | +3.8 | 45.0 | 34.4 | 77.4 | 33.2 | 14.3 |
| 69 | ![]() Cal22-12 | ACC | 77.9 | 74.5 | +3.4 | 44.3 | 36.1 | 77.9 | 34.8 | 13.7 |
| #19 | ![]() Wisconsin24-11 | Big Ten | 83.0 | 83.0 | 0.0 | 45.0 | 36.1 | 78.6 | 35.5 | 16.0 |
| #20 | ![]() Texas Tech23-11 | Big 12 | 80.4 | 80.5 | -0.1 | 46.7 | 39.3 | 71.5 | 36.9 | 15.8 |
| 72 | ![]() Missouri20-13 | SEC | 79.7 | 80.0 | -0.3 | 49.0 | 35.0 | 68.6 | 35.6 | 14.1 |
| #14 | ![]() Arkansas28-9 | SEC | 89.9 | 91.7 | -1.7 | 50.0 | 38.9 | 74.7 | 36.1 | 17.0 |
| #21 | ![]() North Carolina24-9 | ACC | 79.8 | 82.0 | -2.2 | 47.3 | 34.5 | 68.4 | 38.0 | 16.0 |
| 75 | ![]() Kentucky22-14 | SEC | 80.8 | 83.0 | -2.2 | 46.4 | 34.1 | 72.8 | 37.5 | 16.0 |
| 76 | ![]() Oklahoma State20-15 | Big 12 | 84.3 | 88.0 | -3.7 | 46.0 | 33.8 | 75.1 | 38.0 | 14.8 |
| 77 | ![]() SMU20-14 | ACC | 84.2 | 89.0 | -4.8 | 49.0 | 37.4 | 74.1 | 37.7 | 16.9 |
| 78 | ![]() Villanova24-9 | Big East | 77.2 | 86.0 | -8.8 | 45.7 | 35.3 | 69.4 | 34.5 | 15.5 |
| 79 | ![]() Georgia22-11 | SEC | 89.8 | 102.0 | -12.2 | 47.1 | 34.1 | 75.4 | 38.2 | 14.9 |
















































































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