Deep dive into teams, matchups, and tournament dynamics
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Only two 16-seeds have ever beaten a 1-seed: UMBC over Virginia (2018) and FDU over Purdue (2023). These remain the rarest upsets in tournament history.
15-seeds pull off an upset roughly once every two tournaments. Saint Peter's memorable 2022 run to the Elite Eight started with a 15-over-2 upset.
14-seeds win about one in seven matchups. These upsets often come from mid-major conference champs with strong defensive identities.
Over one in five 13-seeds advance. The 4-13 matchup is historically one of the most fertile grounds for bracket-busting picks.
The classic upset pick. 12-seeds win more than a third of these games, making it the most popular Cinderella choice in bracket pools.
11-seeds (including play-in winners) are historically dangerous. Loyola Chicago (2018) and VCU (2011) rode this seed to the Final Four.
Nearly a coin flip. 10-seeds are often strong at-large teams that underperformed expectations during the regular season.
The closest to a true toss-up in the tournament. Seeding barely matters here -- pick the team you believe in.
| # | Team | Conf | Net | PPG | Opp PPG | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | SEC | 91.7 | - | +91.7 | 45.8 | 35.8 | 76.5 | 40.6 | 16.1 |
| 2 | Arkansas | SEC | 89.9 | - | +89.9 | 50.0 | 38.9 | 74.7 | 36.1 | 17.0 |
| 3 | Georgia | SEC | 89.8 | - | +89.8 | 47.1 | 34.1 | 75.4 | 38.2 | 14.9 |
| 4 | Texas A&M | SEC | 87.7 | - | +87.7 | 45.8 | 36.2 | 73.7 | 37.7 | 18.1 |
| 5 | Michigan | Big Ten | 86.8 | - | +86.8 | 50.5 | 36.0 | 74.7 | 40.0 | 18.5 |
| 6 | Florida | SEC | 86.8 | - | +86.8 | 47.8 | 30.8 | 71.0 | 45.4 | 16.6 |
| 7 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 86.4 | - | +86.4 | 47.5 | 35.5 | 79.3 | 35.3 | 16.4 |
| 8 | Arizona | Big 12 | 86.1 | - | +86.1 | 50.2 | 36.0 | 73.4 | 42.5 | 16.9 |
| 9 |  Providence | Big East | 85.3 | - | +85.3 | 47.6 | 36.4 | 75.7 | 38.5 | 14.0 |
| 10 | Louisville | ACC | 84.8 | - | +84.8 | 47.0 | 35.7 | 76.9 | 38.5 | 17.1 |
| 11 | Illinois | Big Ten | 84.4 | - | +84.4 | 46.3 | 34.7 | 78.9 | 40.7 | 14.7 |
| 12 |  Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 84.3 | - | +84.3 | 46.0 | 33.8 | 75.1 | 38.0 | 14.8 |
| 13 |  SMU | ACC | 84.2 | - | +84.2 | 49.0 | 37.4 | 74.1 | 37.7 | 16.9 |
| 14 | BYU | Big 12 | 83.9 | - | +83.9 | 47.7 | 34.9 | 74.6 | 38.3 | 13.5 |
| 15 | Texas | SEC | 83.8 | - | +83.8 | 48.6 | 35.3 | 75.2 | 37.7 | 12.3 |
| 16 | NC State | ACC | 83.7 | - | +83.7 | 46.8 | 38.8 | 76.8 | 34.5 | 15.6 |
| 17 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 83.0 | - | +83.0 | 45.0 | 36.1 | 78.6 | 35.5 | 16.0 |
| 18 |  Oklahoma | SEC | 82.7 | - | +82.7 | 47.0 | 36.8 | 74.5 | 35.8 | 14.3 |
| 19 | Auburn | SEC | 82.7 | - | +82.7 | 45.7 | 33.8 | 74.4 | 36.4 | 12.7 |
| 20 |  Baylor | Big 12 | 82.6 | - | +82.6 | 47.9 | 34.5 | 73.2 | 36.8 | 15.8 |
| 21 | Duke | ACC | 82.3 | - | +82.3 | 49.0 | 35.1 | 72.4 | 40.3 | 16.9 |
| 22 | Miami | ACC | 81.9 | - | +81.9 | 50.1 | 34.7 | 68.5 | 37.3 | 16.1 |
| 23 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 81.8 | - | +81.8 | 49.0 | 38.7 | 67.2 | 35.6 | 17.2 |
| 24 | Purdue | Big Ten | 81.7 | - | +81.7 | 49.9 | 37.9 | 74.3 | 35.4 | 19.9 |
| 25 | St. John's | Big East | 81.6 | - | +81.6 | 45.4 | 33.2 | 72.7 | 38.6 | 16.3 |
| 26 |  LSU | SEC | 81.4 | - | +81.4 | 47.1 | 33.1 | 76.4 | 36.9 | 14.7 |
| 27 |  UCF | Big 12 | 81.0 | - | +81.0 | 46.6 | 36.2 | 74.0 | 37.2 | 15.8 |
| 28 | Kentucky | SEC | 80.8 | - | +80.8 | 46.4 | 34.1 | 72.8 | 37.5 | 16.0 |
| 29 | Virginia | ACC | 80.6 | - | +80.6 | 46.3 | 35.9 | 72.6 | 40.2 | 16.6 |
| 30 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 80.4 | - | +80.4 | 46.7 | 39.3 | 71.5 | 36.9 | 15.8 |
| 31 |  Florida State | ACC | 80.4 | - | +80.4 | 44.0 | 33.1 | 71.3 | 35.3 | 14.3 |
| 32 |  Colorado | Big 12 | 80.0 | - | +80.0 | 47.0 | 35.3 | 75.7 | 34.3 | 15.7 |
| 33 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 79.8 | - | +79.8 | 49.3 | 36.0 | 77.5 | 33.2 | 14.4 |
| 34 | North Carolina | ACC | 79.8 | - | +79.8 | 47.3 | 34.5 | 68.4 | 38.0 | 16.0 |
| 35 |  Missouri | SEC | 79.7 | - | +79.7 | 49.0 | 35.0 | 68.6 | 35.6 | 14.1 |
| 36 |  Kansas State | Big 12 | 79.6 | - | +79.6 | 45.9 | 36.4 | 71.0 | 34.0 | 16.8 |
| 37 | Tennessee | SEC | 79.5 | - | +79.5 | 46.3 | 33.4 | 69.4 | 42.6 | 16.9 |
| 38 |  Butler | Big East | 79.4 | - | +79.4 | 45.2 | 32.7 | 71.9 | 37.8 | 15.5 |
| 39 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 78.9 | - | +78.9 | 47.1 | 35.9 | 76.3 | 39.8 | 18.5 |
| 40 |  Wake Forest | ACC | 78.8 | - | +78.8 | 45.0 | 34.4 | 77.4 | 33.2 | 14.3 |
| 41 |  Virginia Tech | ACC | 78.8 | - | +78.8 | 45.2 | 35.5 | 74.3 | 34.8 | 14.4 |
| 42 |  USC | Big Ten | 78.6 | - | +78.6 | 45.4 | 31.4 | 72.4 | 36.5 | 15.3 |
| 43 |  Xavier | Big East | 78.4 | - | +78.4 | 44.4 | 36.5 | 72.9 | 34.3 | 17.4 |
| 44 | TCU | Big 12 | 78.3 | - | +78.3 | 44.8 | 33.1 | 70.8 | 36.2 | 15.6 |
| 45 | Indiana | Big Ten | 78.2 | - | +78.2 | 47.4 | 34.7 | 78.0 | 32.4 | 16.6 |
| 46 | Cal | ACC | 77.9 | - | +77.9 | 44.3 | 36.1 | 77.9 | 34.8 | 13.7 |
| 47 | UCLA | Big Ten | 77.7 | - | +77.7 | 47.1 | 38.2 | 76.7 | 32.3 | 16.3 |
| 48 |  Mississippi State | SEC | 77.6 | - | +77.6 | 45.0 | 32.4 | 66.0 | 38.2 | 12.8 |
| 49 | UConn | Big East | 77.5 | - | +77.5 | 48.2 | 35.2 | 71.6 | 36.6 | 18.4 |
| 50 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 77.3 | - | +77.3 | 46.5 | 35.3 | 75.0 | 34.9 | 18.0 |
| 51 | Villanova | Big East | 77.2 | - | +77.2 | 45.7 | 35.3 | 69.4 | 34.5 | 15.5 |
| 52 | Houston | Big 12 | 77.1 | - | +77.1 | 45.0 | 34.9 | 77.2 | 36.6 | 14.7 |
| 53 |  Washington | Big Ten | 77.1 | - | +77.1 | 45.8 | 31.5 | 76.4 | 37.2 | 13.9 |
| 54 |  Arizona State | Big 12 | 76.3 | - | +76.3 | 44.7 | 33.4 | 75.3 | 33.2 | 13.7 |
| 55 |  Stanford | ACC | 76.0 | - | +76.0 | 43.8 | 35.6 | 73.1 | 33.7 | 11.9 |
| 56 |  Ole Miss | SEC | 75.9 | - | +75.9 | 44.6 | 33.2 | 74.9 | 34.3 | 13.5 |
| 57 | Kansas | Big 12 | 75.6 | - | +75.6 | 45.3 | 35.0 | 76.7 | 38.8 | 14.3 |
| 58 | Iowa | Big Ten | 75.2 | - | +75.2 | 49.1 | 35.7 | 77.0 | 29.4 | 15.3 |
| 59 |  Marquette | Big East | 75.2 | - | +75.2 | 43.8 | 31.7 | 67.5 | 34.2 | 15.5 |
| 60 |  Creighton | Big East | 75.1 | - | +75.1 | 44.8 | 34.5 | 76.0 | 35.2 | 15.5 |
| 61 |  Syracuse | ACC | 75.0 | - | +75.0 | 46.5 | 32.9 | 64.8 | 34.2 | 12.8 |
| 62 |  South Carolina | SEC | 74.9 | - | +74.9 | 43.4 | 31.1 | 78.1 | 32.6 | 13.3 |
| 63 |  Notre Dame | ACC | 74.5 | - | +74.5 | 44.5 | 35.6 | 69.7 | 36.6 | 12.3 |
| 64 | Utah | Big 12 | 74.3 | - | +74.3 | 45.4 | 35.3 | 73.8 | 33.6 | 13.7 |
| 65 | Clemson | ACC | 74.1 | - | +74.1 | 45.3 | 34.1 | 72.6 | 34.3 | 12.8 |
| 66 |  Georgia Tech | ACC | 73.8 | - | +73.8 | 44.2 | 35.1 | 71.1 | 37.1 | 15.8 |
| 67 |  Penn State | Big Ten | 73.7 | - | +73.7 | 46.9 | 32.4 | 75.0 | 29.0 | 12.7 |
| 68 |  Georgetown | Big East | 73.6 | - | +73.6 | 44.0 | 31.8 | 74.0 | 35.6 | 14.8 |
| 69 |  Northwestern | Big Ten | 73.1 | - | +73.1 | 46.1 | 33.0 | 75.1 | 30.5 | 17.2 |
| 70 | Cincinnati | Big 12 | 73.1 | - | +73.1 | 43.1 | 33.9 | 68.1 | 37.3 | 16.6 |
| 71 |  Oregon | Big Ten | 70.8 | - | +70.8 | 42.6 | 32.1 | 73.0 | 34.4 | 14.3 |
| 72 |  Rutgers | Big Ten | 70.6 | - | +70.6 | 41.8 | 32.8 | 74.1 | 32.7 | 12.3 |
| 73 |  Pittsburgh | ACC | 70.5 | - | +70.5 | 43.9 | 33.4 | 67.4 | 34.5 | 13.2 |
| 74 |  Seton Hall | Big East | 70.3 | - | +70.3 | 43.5 | 30.5 | 72.3 | 35.8 | 13.1 |
| 75 |  DePaul | Big East | 70.3 | - | +70.3 | 43.5 | 32.5 | 69.2 | 33.3 | 15.0 |
| 76 |  Minnesota | Big Ten | 70.0 | - | +70.0 | 46.0 | 34.8 | 70.0 | 31.0 | 17.4 |
| 77 |  Maryland | Big Ten | 69.7 | - | +69.7 | 40.7 | 31.7 | 72.2 | 35.4 | 10.5 |
| 78 |  West Virginia | Big 12 | 69.2 | - | +69.2 | 44.1 | 32.8 | 67.7 | 34.6 | 12.8 |
| 79 |  Boston College | ACC | 67.4 | - | +67.4 | 40.8 | 29.4 | 65.3 | 36.6 | 11.3 |
AAC