NCAABBTournament Analysis

Tournament Analysis

Deep dive into teams, matchups, and tournament dynamics

Cinderella Watch

(32 dark horses)

Upset Alert

(0 candidates)

No upcoming upset candidates available yet. Check back once games are scheduled.

Historical Seed Matchup Rates

1 vs 161.2% upset rate

Only two 16-seeds have ever beaten a 1-seed: UMBC over Virginia (2018) and FDU over Purdue (2023). These remain the rarest upsets in tournament history.

2 vs 156.3% upset rate

15-seeds pull off an upset roughly once every two tournaments. Saint Peter's memorable 2022 run to the Elite Eight started with a 15-over-2 upset.

3 vs 1415.2% upset rate

14-seeds win about one in seven matchups. These upsets often come from mid-major conference champs with strong defensive identities.

4 vs 1321.5% upset rate

Over one in five 13-seeds advance. The 4-13 matchup is historically one of the most fertile grounds for bracket-busting picks.

5 vs 1235.4% upset rate

The classic upset pick. 12-seeds win more than a third of these games, making it the most popular Cinderella choice in bracket pools.

6 vs 1137.3% upset rate

11-seeds (including play-in winners) are historically dangerous. Loyola Chicago (2018) and VCU (2011) rode this seed to the Final Four.

7 vs 1039.2% upset rate

Nearly a coin flip. 10-seeds are often strong at-large teams that underperformed expectations during the regular season.

8 vs 948.7% upset rate

The closest to a true toss-up in the tournament. Seeding barely matters here -- pick the team you believe in.

Conference Tracker

(31 conferences in the field)
B
Big Ten
Big Ten10 bids
Auto:
M
Michigan
Michigan
At-Large:
P
Purdue
Purdue
I
Illinois
Illinois
M
Michigan State
Michigan State
I
Iowa
Iowa
N
Nebraska
Nebraska
W
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
O
Ohio State
Ohio State
U
UCLA
UCLA
I
Indiana
Indiana
10
S
SEC
SEC10 bids
Auto:
F
Florida
Florida
At-Large:
V
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt
A
Arkansas
Arkansas
A
Alabama
Alabama
T
Tennessee
Tennessee
T
Texas
Texas
K
Kentucky
Kentucky
G
Georgia
Georgia
T
Texas A&M
Texas A&M
A
Auburn
Auburn
10
B
Big 12
Big 128 bids
Auto:
A
Arizona
Arizona
At-Large:
H
Houston
Houston
I
Iowa State
Iowa State
K
Kansas
Kansas
T
Texas Tech
Texas Tech
B
BYU
BYU
T
TCU
TCU
C
Cincinnati
Cincinnati
8
A
ACC
ACC7 bids
Auto:
D
Duke
Duke
At-Large:
V
Virginia
Virginia
L
Louisville
Louisville
N
North Carolina
North Carolina
M
Miami
Miami
C
Clemson
Clemson
N
NC State
NC State
7
B
Big East
Big East3 bids
Auto:
U
UConn
UConn
At-Large:
S
St. John's
St. John's
V
Villanova
Villanova
3
W
WCC
WCC3 bids
Auto:
G
Gonzaga
Gonzaga
At-Large:
S
Saint Mary's
Saint Mary's
S
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
3
A
A102 bids
Auto:
S
Saint Louis
At-Large:
V
VCU
VCU
2
A
Amer1 bid
Auto:
S
South Florida
South Florida
1
A
America East1 bid
Auto:
U
UMBC
1
A
ASUN
ASUN1 bid
Auto:
C
Central Arkansas
Central Arkansas
1
B
Big Sky
Big Sky1 bid
Auto:
M
Montana State
Montana State
1
B
Big South
Big South1 bid
Auto:
H
High Point
High Point
1
B
Bw1 bid
Auto:
S
San Diego
San Diego
1
C
C Usa1 bid
Auto:
S
Sam Houston
1
C
CAA
CAA1 bid
Auto:
H
Hofstra
1
H
Horizon
Horizon1 bid
Auto:
W
Wright
1
I
Ivy1 bid
Auto:
Y
Yale
Yale
1
M
Maac1 bid
Auto:
Q
Quinnipiac
1
M
Mac1 bid
Auto:
A
Akron
1
M
Meac1 bid
Auto:
N
Norfolk
1
M
MVC
MVC1 bid
Auto:
B
Belmont
1
M
MWC
MWC1 bid
Auto:
U
Utah
Utah
1
N
Nec1 bid
Auto:
L
Le Moyne
1
O
Ovc1 bid
Auto:
S
Southeast Missouri
1
P
Patriot
Patriot1 bid
Auto:
N
Navy
Navy
1
S
Sc1 bid
Auto:
E
ETSU
ETSU
1
S
Slnd1 bid
Auto:
M
McNeese
1
S
Summit
Summit1 bid
Auto:
S
St. Thomas
1
S
Sun Belt
Sun Belt1 bid
Auto:
A
Appalachian
1
S
Swac1 bid
Auto:
P
Prairie View A&M
1
W
Wac1 bid
Auto:
C
Cal
Cal
1

Power Rankings

(79 teams)
Sorted by Net Rating
1
Providence
ProvidenceBig East
15-18
PPG85.3
Opp-
Net+85.3
FG%47.6
Elite scoring offenseEfficient shooting
2
Oklahoma
OklahomaSEC
19-15
PPG82.7
Opp-
Net+82.7
FG%47.0
Elite scoring offenseEfficient shooting
3
Baylor
BaylorBig 12
16-16
PPG82.6
Opp-
Net+82.6
FG%47.9
Elite scoring offenseEfficient shooting
4
LSU
LSUSEC
15-17
PPG81.4
Opp-
Net+81.4
FG%47.1
Elite scoring offenseEfficient shooting
5
Florida State
Florida StateACC
18-15
PPG80.4
Opp-
Net+80.4
FG%44.0
Elite scoring offense
6
Colorado
ColoradoBig 12
17-15
PPG80.0
Opp-
Net+80.0
FG%47.0
Strong scoring offense
7
Kansas State
Kansas StateBig 12
12-20
PPG79.6
Opp-
Net+79.6
FG%45.9
Strong scoring offenseExcellent ball movement
8
Butler
ButlerBig East
16-16
PPG79.4
Opp-
Net+79.4
FG%45.2
Strong scoring offense
9
Virginia Tech
Virginia TechACC
19-13
PPG78.8
Opp-
Net+78.8
FG%45.2
Strong scoring offense
10
USC
USCBig Ten
18-14
PPG78.6
Opp-
Net+78.6
FG%45.4
Strong scoring offenseStrong shot-blocking presence
11
Xavier
XavierBig East
15-18
PPG78.4
Opp-
Net+78.4
FG%44.4
Strong scoring offenseExcellent ball movement
12
Indiana
IndianaBig Ten
18-14
PPG78.2
Opp-
Net+78.2
FG%47.4
Strong scoring offenseEfficient shooting
13
Mississippi State
Mississippi StateSEC
13-19
PPG77.6
Opp-
Net+77.6
FG%45.0
Strong scoring offenseDominant on the boards
14
Washington
WashingtonBig Ten
16-17
PPG77.1
Opp-
Net+77.1
FG%45.8
Strong scoring offense
15
Arizona State
Arizona StateBig 12
17-16
PPG76.3
Opp-
Net+76.3
FG%44.7
Strong scoring offenseStrong shot-blocking presence
16
Stanford
StanfordACC
20-12
PPG76.0
Opp-
Net+76.0
FG%43.8
Strong scoring offense
17
Ole Miss
Ole MissSEC
15-20
PPG75.9
Opp-
Net+75.9
FG%44.6
Strong scoring offense
18
Marquette
MarquetteBig East
12-20
PPG75.2
Opp-
Net+75.2
FG%43.8
Strong scoring offenseDisruptive with steals
19
Creighton
CreightonBig East
15-17
PPG75.1
Opp-
Net+75.1
FG%44.8
Strong scoring offense
20
Syracuse
SyracuseACC
15-17
PPG75.0
Opp-
Net+75.0
FG%46.5
Strong scoring offenseStrong shot-blocking presence
21
South Carolina
South CarolinaSEC
13-19
PPG74.9
Opp-
Net+74.9
FG%43.4
Strong free throw shooting
22
Notre Dame
Notre DameACC
13-18
PPG74.5
Opp-
Net+74.5
FG%44.5
23
Utah
UtahBig 12
10-22
PPG74.3
Opp-
Net+74.3
FG%45.4
24
Georgia Tech
Georgia TechACC
11-20
PPG73.8
Opp-
Net+73.8
FG%44.2
25
Penn State
Penn StateBig Ten
12-20
PPG73.7
Opp-
Net+73.7
FG%46.9
26
Georgetown
GeorgetownBig East
16-18
PPG73.6
Opp-
Net+73.6
FG%44.0
27
Northwestern
NorthwesternBig Ten
15-19
PPG73.1
Opp-
Net+73.1
FG%46.1
Excellent ball movement
28
Cincinnati
CincinnatiBig 12
18-15
PPG73.1
Opp-
Net+73.1
FG%43.1
Excellent ball movement
29
Oregon
OregonBig Ten
12-20
PPG70.8
Opp-
Net+70.8
FG%42.6
30
Rutgers
RutgersBig Ten
14-19
PPG70.6
Opp-
Net+70.6
FG%41.8
31
Pittsburgh
PittsburghACC
13-20
PPG70.5
Opp-
Net+70.5
FG%43.9
32
Seton Hall
Seton HallBig East
21-12
PPG70.3
Opp-
Net+70.3
FG%43.5
Disruptive with stealsStrong shot-blocking presence
33
DePaul
DePaulBig East
16-16
PPG70.3
Opp-
Net+70.3
FG%43.5
34
Minnesota
MinnesotaBig Ten
15-17
PPG70.0
Opp-
Net+70.0
FG%46.0
Excellent ball movement
35
Maryland
MarylandBig Ten
12-21
PPG69.7
Opp-
Net+69.7
FG%40.7
36
West Virginia
West VirginiaBig 12
18-14
PPG69.2
Opp-
Net+69.2
FG%44.1
37
Boston College
Boston CollegeACC
11-20
PPG67.4
Opp-
Net+67.4
FG%40.8
#13
Illinois
IllinoisBig Ten
28-8
PPG84.4
Opp59.8
Net+24.6
FG%46.3
Elite scoring offenseElite defensive team
#4
Florida
FloridaSEC
27-8
PPG86.8
Opp64.0
Net+22.8
FG%47.8
Elite scoring offenseStrong defensive team
#5
Houston
HoustonBig 12
30-7
PPG77.1
Opp56.3
Net+20.8
FG%45.0
Strong scoring offenseElite defensive team
41
Texas A&M
Texas A&MSEC
22-12
PPG87.7
Opp69.0
Net+18.7
FG%45.8
Elite scoring offenseExcellent ball movement
#2
Arizona
ArizonaBig 12
36-2
PPG86.1
Opp69.0
Net+17.1
FG%50.2
Elite scoring offenseEfficient shooting
#18
Alabama
AlabamaSEC
25-10
PPG91.7
Opp75.0
Net+16.7
FG%45.8
Elite scoring offenseDominant on the boards
44
NC State
NC StateACC
20-14
PPG83.7
Opp68.0
Net+15.7
FG%46.8
Elite scoring offenseDangerous from three-point range
#10
St. John's
St. John'sBig East
30-7
PPG81.6
Opp66.0
Net+15.6
FG%45.4
Elite scoring offenseStrong defensive team
#16
Vanderbilt
VanderbiltSEC
27-9
PPG86.4
Opp71.0
Net+15.4
FG%47.5
Elite scoring offenseEfficient shooting
#1
Duke
DukeACC
35-3
PPG82.3
Opp67.8
Net+14.5
FG%49.0
Elite scoring offenseEfficient shooting
#3
Michigan
MichiganBig Ten
35-3
PPG86.8
Opp72.8
Net+14.1
FG%50.5
Elite scoring offenseEfficient shooting
49
Ohio State
Ohio StateBig Ten
21-13
PPG79.8
Opp66.0
Net+13.8
FG%49.3
Strong scoring offenseStrong defensive team
50
Texas
TexasSEC
21-15
PPG83.8
Opp71.0
Net+12.8
FG%48.6
Elite scoring offenseEfficient shooting
#17
Kansas
KansasBig 12
24-11
PPG75.6
Opp63.5
Net+12.1
FG%45.3
Strong scoring offenseStrong defensive team
#15
Nebraska
NebraskaBig Ten
28-7
PPG77.3
Opp65.3
Net+11.9
FG%46.5
Strong scoring offenseStrong defensive team
#7
UConn
UConnBig East
33-5
PPG77.5
Opp65.8
Net+11.8
FG%48.2
Strong scoring offenseStrong defensive team
#11
Michigan State
Michigan StateBig Ten
27-8
PPG78.9
Opp67.7
Net+11.3
FG%47.1
Strong scoring offenseEfficient shooting
#6
Iowa State
Iowa StateBig 12
29-8
PPG81.8
Opp71.0
Net+10.8
FG%49.0
Elite scoring offenseEfficient shooting
#25
Miami
MiamiACC
26-9
PPG81.9
Opp72.5
Net+9.4
FG%50.1
Elite scoring offenseEfficient shooting
57
Auburn
AuburnSEC
20-16
PPG82.7
Opp73.7
Net+9.1
FG%45.7
Elite scoring offense
#23
Tennessee
TennesseeSEC
25-12
PPG79.5
Opp71.3
Net+8.2
FG%46.3
Strong scoring offenseDominant on the boards
#8
Purdue
PurdueBig Ten
30-9
PPG81.7
Opp74.0
Net+7.7
FG%49.9
Elite scoring offenseEfficient shooting
60
Clemson
ClemsonACC
24-11
PPG74.1
Opp67.0
Net+7.1
FG%45.3
Strong defensive team
#23
Louisville
LouisvilleACC
24-11
PPG84.8
Opp78.0
Net+6.8
FG%47.0
Elite scoring offenseEfficient shooting
62
Iowa
IowaBig Ten
24-13
PPG75.2
Opp68.8
Net+6.5
FG%49.1
Strong scoring offenseEfficient shooting
63
UCF
UCFBig 12
21-12
PPG81.0
Opp75.0
Net+6.0
FG%46.6
Elite scoring offense
64
TCU
TCUBig 12
23-12
PPG78.3
Opp72.5
Net+5.8
FG%44.8
Strong scoring offenseStrong shot-blocking presence
65
UCLA
UCLABig Ten
24-12
PPG77.7
Opp72.0
Net+5.7
FG%47.1
Strong scoring offenseEfficient shooting
66
BYU
BYUBig 12
23-12
PPG83.9
Opp79.0
Net+4.9
FG%47.7
Elite scoring offenseEfficient shooting
#9
Virginia
VirginiaACC
30-6
PPG80.6
Opp76.0
Net+4.6
FG%46.3
Elite scoring offenseDominant on the boards
68
Wake Forest
Wake ForestACC
18-17
PPG78.8
Opp75.0
Net+3.8
FG%45.0
Strong scoring offenseStrong free throw shooting
69
Cal
CalACC
22-12
PPG77.9
Opp74.5
Net+3.4
FG%44.3
Strong scoring offenseStrong free throw shooting
#19
Wisconsin
WisconsinBig Ten
24-11
PPG83.0
Opp83.0
Net0.0
FG%45.0
Elite scoring offenseStrong free throw shooting
#20
Texas Tech
Texas TechBig 12
23-11
PPG80.4
Opp80.5
Net-0.1
FG%46.7
Elite scoring offenseDangerous from three-point range
72
Missouri
MissouriSEC
20-13
PPG79.7
Opp80.0
Net-0.3
FG%49.0
Strong scoring offenseEfficient shooting
#14
Arkansas
ArkansasSEC
28-9
PPG89.9
Opp91.7
Net-1.7
FG%50.0
Elite scoring offenseEfficient shooting
#21
North Carolina
North CarolinaACC
24-9
PPG79.8
Opp82.0
Net-2.2
FG%47.3
Strong scoring offenseEfficient shooting
75
Kentucky
KentuckySEC
22-14
PPG80.8
Opp83.0
Net-2.2
FG%46.4
Elite scoring offenseExcellent ball movement
76
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma StateBig 12
20-15
PPG84.3
Opp88.0
Net-3.7
FG%46.0
Elite scoring offenseDominant on the boards
77
SMU
SMUACC
20-14
PPG84.2
Opp89.0
Net-4.8
FG%49.0
Elite scoring offenseEfficient shooting
78
Villanova
VillanovaBig East
24-9
PPG77.2
Opp86.0
Net-8.8
FG%45.7
Strong scoring offense
79
Georgia
GeorgiaSEC
22-11
PPG89.8
Opp102.0
Net-12.2
FG%47.1
Elite scoring offenseEfficient shooting