Bobby'sSports Analytics · NFL
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NFL
BUF
Buffalo Bills
LV
Las Vegas Raiders
@

Sunday, October 18 at 4:25 PM EDT

BUF

-4.5

-230

Total

53.5

LV

+4.5

+190

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.

SpreadBUF -4.5-118
SpreadLV +4.5-102
TotalOver 53.5-115
TotalUnder 53.5-105
MoneylineBUF to win-230
MoneylineLV to win+190

How games at these numbers have gone

  • The key number. 4.5 sits half a point past 4, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
  • Spread 4.5 — the 4-6 point band. In 1,063 games since 1999 the favorite covered 49.2% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–52.2%) is taken into account.
  • Total 53.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,584 of them.

Last three seasons

BUF

25-19 ATS · 32-12 SU · 27-16 O/U

went over in 27 of 43

LV

19-20 ATS · 10-29 SU · 20-19 O/U

Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.

The Read

Buffalo Bills open a 4.5-point favorite over Las Vegas Raiders — about 70% implied to win outright. The 53.5 total prices it near 29–25, one of the week's higher totals.

Buffalo Bills went 12–5 in 2025 — #6 of 32 by point differential (+6.8/g).

Las Vegas Raiders went 3–14 in 2025 — #32 of 32 by point differential (-11.2/g).

2025 team profiles

Buffalo Bills

2025 record12-5Point diff / game+6.8Pythag wins (rank)11.2 (#6)2026 SOS rank#8

Las Vegas Raiders

2025 record3-14Point diff / game-11.2Pythag wins (rank)3.4 (#32)2026 SOS rank#7

Props on the board — BUF @ LV

Facts for this game

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