Futures Lab

A futures ticket is a bet you cannot get out of for months, so the price you pay matters more than anywhere else on the board. This is what each market costs, where one book pays more than the sharpest one, and what has moved.

Priced above sharp fair value

Kansas City Chiefs · Super Bowl Champion

+8.9%

fanduel +1700 · sharp +1340 · fair 6.05%

The sharpest market implies 6.05% once its margin is removed, which is worth about +1553. You are being offered +1700.

What each market costs

For scale, a normal game spread at −110 both ways is about 4.5%. Every number below is what the book keeps before a single game is played.

Cheapest — Where the tax is lowest.

To Miss Playoffs322.6%

Team to Advance Further: BAL Ravens vs. BUF Bills35.9%

To Make Playoffs326.1%

ARI Cardinals Stage of Elimination66.5%

Team to Advance Further: DAL Cowboys vs. PIT Steelers36.7%

NFL 2026/27 - AFC South Winner47.3%

Most expensive — Long-shot award markets, mostly.

Most Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns12147.6%

Most Regular Season Rushing Touchdowns6342.3%

Most Regular Season Receiving Yards9642.1%

Most Regular Season Sacks6941.8%

Most Regular Season Receptions10141.7%

Offensive Player of the Year11241.3%

What has moved

Measured in implied probability rather than raw odds, because +200 to +150 and +2000 to +1500 are the same proportional shortening but very different amounts of belief. Ladder and over/under markets are left out — the archive stores no line for them, so a price change cannot be told apart from the book moving the number.

Brock BowersNFL 2026/27 - AFC West Most Regular Season Receiving Yards [Dead Heat Rules Apply]+900 → +350+12.2pp

Jordyn TysonOffensive Rookie of the Year+600 → +4000-11.8pp

Jaylen WaddleNFL 2026/27 - AFC West Most Regular Season Receiving Yards [Dead Heat Rules Apply]+200 → +300-8.3pp

Ladd McConkeyNFL 2026/27 - AFC West Most Regular Season Receiving Yards [Dead Heat Rules Apply]+200 → +275-6.7pp

Fernando MendozaOffensive Rookie of the Year+425 → +700-6.6pp

Courtland SuttonNFL 2026/27 - AFC West Most Regular Season Receiving Yards [Dead Heat Rules Apply]+500 → +800-5.6pp

DAL CowboysNFL 2026/27 - NFC East Winner+235 → +184+5.4pp

1stNFL 2026/27 - DAL Cowboys - Division Finishing Position+235 → +184+5.4pp

MIA DolphinsNFL 2026/27 - AFC East Most Wins after 4 Weeks (Dead Heat Rules Apply)+600 → +1000-5.2pp

0 WinsARI Cardinals Wins After Their First 5 Games+200 → +160+5.1pp

ATL FalconsTo Make Playoffs+310 → +240+5.0pp

ATL FalconsTo Miss Playoffs-400 → -300-5.0pp

Prices from DraftKings, Pinnacle, FanDuel and BetRivers, refreshed through the day. Nothing here predicts a winner — it prices what is on offer. The same discipline applied to the spread market is on The Numbers. Confirm any price at your book before betting. 21+.