Futures Lab
A futures ticket is a bet you cannot get out of for months, so the price you pay matters more than anywhere else on the board. This is what each market costs, where one book pays more than the sharpest one, and what has moved.
Priced above sharp fair value
New England Patriots · Super Bowl Champion
fanduel +2500 · sharp +1729 · fair 4.43%
The sharpest market implies 4.43% once its margin is removed, which is worth about +2157. You are being offered +2500.
What each market costs
For scale, a normal game spread at −110 both ways is about 4.5%. Every number below is what the book keeps before a single game is played.
Cheapest — Where the tax is lowest.
Most expensive — Long-shot award markets, mostly.
What has moved
Measured in implied probability rather than raw odds, because +200 to +150 and +2000 to +1500 are the same proportional shortening but very different amounts of belief. Ladder and over/under markets are left out — the archive stores no line for them, so a price change cannot be told apart from the book moving the number.
LA ChargersTo Make Playoffs-168 → +2000-57.9pp
JAX JaguarsNFL 2026/27 - AFC South Winner+245 → -380+50.2pp
SF 49ersNFL 2026/27 - NFC West Winner+305 → -260+47.5pp
MIN VikingsTo Make Playoffs+154 → -650+47.3ppJAX JaguarsTo Make Playoffs+110 → -900+42.4ppSF 49ersNFL 2026/27 - NFC 1 Seed+900 → -105+41.2pp
Patrick MahomesComeback Player of the Year [All Bets Action]+185 → -300+39.9ppSF 49ersTo Make Playoffs-146 → -3000+37.4ppPrices from DraftKings, Pinnacle, FanDuel and BetRivers, refreshed through the day. Nothing here predicts a winner — it prices what is on offer. The same discipline applied to the spread market is on The Numbers. Confirm any price at your book before betting. 21+.