NFL Prop Finder
Every posted prop with its evidence — hit rates, recent form, edge vs. the line, and how the defense opposite has held up. More stat types appear as books post them toward game week.
L5 / L10 / L20 are rolling windows over this player's most recent games and cross the season boundary — the 20th game back is real, not padding. Season is all 2025 games only. vs Opp is every meeting with this week's opponent we hold, with the number of meetings beside it. Opp D ranks that defense 1 (stingiest) to 32 (softest) at conceding this stat. Sample sizes are always shown — a rate over 4 games is not the evidence a rate over 40 is.
On vs Mkt: the gap between this player's 20-game hit rate and what the market really thinks, once the book's margin is removed from both sides of the line. Positive means we disagree with the price in our favour. It is not a promise of profit: measured across the board that gap averages about zero, which is what you would expect if the price already knows what the hit rate knows. Blank on one-sided markets like anytime touchdown, where there is no second side to strip the margin against. It also compares a 2025 rate to a 2026 price, so a very large gap usually means the player's role changed — a backup who scored often behind an injured starter still prices as a backup, and the book is the side with this year's information. Edge is left blank where the rate rests on fewer than three occurrences in that window: one more touchdown either way would move the number by hundreds of points, which makes it a coin flip dressed as a calculation.
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Runs on the same data