Kansas City Chiefs open a 11.5-point favorite over Arizona Cardinals — about 86% implied to win outright. The 44.5 total prices it near 28–17.

Arizona Cardinals went 3–14 in 2025 — #29 of 32 by point differential (-7.8/g), and were 2.4 wins unlucky versus their margin.

Kansas City Chiefs went 6–11 in 2025 — #12 of 32 by point differential (+2.0/g), and were 3.5 wins unlucky versus their margin.

Arizona Cardinals face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #3).