Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsNFL Analytics
All matchups
CHI
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
GB

Sunday, October 11 at 4:25 PM EDT

CHI

+3

+140

Total

49.5

GB

-3

-166

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.

SpreadCHI +3.0-110
SpreadGB -3-110
TotalOver 49.5-110
TotalUnder 49.5-110
MoneylineCHI to win+140
MoneylineGB to win-166

How games at these numbers have gone

  • The key number. 3 is one of the numbers NFL games land on most often, so this line can push — and a half-point move off it changes far more games than a half-point anywhere else.
  • Spread 3 — the 3-4 point band. In 1,737 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.5% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
  • Total 49.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,551 of them.

Last three seasons

CHI

20-14-3 ATS · 18-19 SU · 17-20 O/U

20-14-3 against the spread

GB

14-22-1 ATS · 20-17 SU · 19-17 O/U

14-22-1 against the spread

Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.

The Read

Green Bay Packers open a 3-point favorite over Chicago Bears — about 62% implied to win outright. The 49.5 total prices it near 26–23, one of the week's higher totals.

Chicago Bears went 11–6 in 2025 — #16 of 32 by point differential (+1.5/g), but +1.9 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.

Green Bay Packers went 9–7 in 2025 — #14 of 32 by point differential (+1.8/g).

Chicago Bears face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #1).

2025 team profiles

Chicago Bears

2025 record11-6Point diff / game+1.5Pythag wins (rank)9.1 (#16)2026 SOS rank#1

Green Bay Packers

2025 record9-7Point diff / game+1.8Pythag wins (rank)9.3 (#14)2026 SOS rank#4

Props on the board — CHI @ GB