Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsNFL Analytics
All matchups
IND
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
KC

Sunday, September 20 at 8:20 PM EDT

IND

+6.5

+230

Total

46.5

KC

-6.5

-285

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.

SpreadIND +6.5+100
SpreadKC -6.5-120
TotalOver 46.5-110
TotalUnder 46.5-110
MoneylineIND to win+230
MoneylineKC to win-285

How games at these numbers have gone

  • The key number. 6.5 sits half a point short of 7, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
  • Spread 6.5 — the 6-7 point band. In 683 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (44.3–51.8%) is taken into account.
  • Total 46.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,551 of them.

Last three seasons

IND

18-17 ATS · 16-19 SU · 20-15 O/U

KC

15-23 ATS · 24-14 SU · 13-25 O/U

went under in 25 of 38

Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.

The Read

Kansas City Chiefs open a 6.5-point favorite over Indianapolis Colts — about 74% implied to win outright. The 46.5 total prices it near 27–20.

Indianapolis Colts went 8–9 in 2025 — #11 of 32 by point differential (+3.2/g), and were 1.7 wins unlucky versus their margin.

Kansas City Chiefs went 6–11 in 2025 — #12 of 32 by point differential (+2.0/g), and were 3.5 wins unlucky versus their margin.

Indianapolis Colts drew one of the softest 2026 slates (strength of schedule #29).

2025 team profiles

Indianapolis Colts

2025 record8-9Point diff / game+3.2Pythag wins (rank)9.7 (#11)2026 SOS rank#29

Kansas City Chiefs

2025 record6-11Point diff / game+2.0Pythag wins (rank)9.5 (#12)2026 SOS rank#5

Props on the board — IND @ KC