

Sunday, September 20 at 8:20 PM EDT
IND
+6.5
+230
Total
46.5
KC
-6.5
-285
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 6.5 sits half a point short of 7, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
- Spread 6.5 — the 6-7 point band. In 683 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (44.3–51.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 46.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,551 of them.
Last three seasons
IND
18-17 ATS · 16-19 SU · 20-15 O/U
KC
15-23 ATS · 24-14 SU · 13-25 O/U
went under in 25 of 38
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Kansas City Chiefs open a 6.5-point favorite over Indianapolis Colts — about 74% implied to win outright. The 46.5 total prices it near 27–20.
Indianapolis Colts went 8–9 in 2025 — #11 of 32 by point differential (+3.2/g), and were 1.7 wins unlucky versus their margin.
Kansas City Chiefs went 6–11 in 2025 — #12 of 32 by point differential (+2.0/g), and were 3.5 wins unlucky versus their margin.
Indianapolis Colts drew one of the softest 2026 slates (strength of schedule #29).
2025 team profiles
Indianapolis Colts
Kansas City Chiefs
