Sunday, November 1 at 4:25 PM EST
KC
-1.5
-118
Total
40.5
DEN
+1.5
-102
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 1.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 1,495 games since 1999 the favorite covered 49.8% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.3–52.4%) is taken into account.
- Total 40.5 — spread in the 0-3 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 48.8% of the time across 1,488 of them.
Last three seasons
KC
17-26 ATS · 28-15 SU · 15-28 O/U
6-15 ATS away
DEN
26-18 ATS · 30-14 SU · 21-23 O/U
16-6 ATS home
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Kansas City Chiefs open a 1.5-point favorite over Denver Broncos — about 54% implied to win outright. The 40.5 total prices it near 21–20, a low-scoring script.
Kansas City Chiefs went 6–11 in 2025 — #12 of 32 by point differential (+2.0/g), and were 3.5 wins unlucky versus their margin.
Denver Broncos went 14–3 in 2025 — #7 of 32 by point differential (+5.3/g), but +3.0 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
Kansas City Chiefs face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #5).
2025 team profiles
Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos