Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsNFL Analytics
All matchups
KC
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
LV

Sunday, October 4 at 4:25 PM EDT

KC

-5.5

-230

Total

43.5

LV

+5.5

+190

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.

SpreadKC -5.5-110
SpreadLV +5.5-110
TotalOver 43.5-110
TotalUnder 43.5-110
MoneylineKC to win-230
MoneylineLV to win+190

How games at these numbers have gone

  • The key number. 5.5 sits half a point short of 6, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
  • Spread 5.5 — the 4-6 point band. In 1,055 games since 1999 the favorite covered 49.2% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–52.2%) is taken into account.
  • Total 43.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,551 of them.

Last three seasons

KC

15-23 ATS · 24-14 SU · 13-25 O/U

went under in 25 of 38

LV

16-19 ATS · 8-27 SU · 17-18 O/U

Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.

The Read

Kansas City Chiefs open a 5.5-point favorite over Las Vegas Raiders — about 70% implied to win outright. The 43.5 total prices it near 25–19.

Kansas City Chiefs went 6–11 in 2025 — #12 of 32 by point differential (+2.0/g), and were 3.5 wins unlucky versus their margin.

Las Vegas Raiders went 3–14 in 2025 — #32 of 32 by point differential (-11.2/g).

Kansas City Chiefs face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #5).

2025 team profiles

Kansas City Chiefs

2025 record6-11Point diff / game+2.0Pythag wins (rank)9.5 (#12)2026 SOS rank#5

Las Vegas Raiders

2025 record3-14Point diff / game-11.2Pythag wins (rank)3.4 (#32)2026 SOS rank#7

Props on the board — KC @ LV