Kansas City Chiefs open a 7.5-point favorite over Miami Dolphins — about 78% implied to win outright. The 44.5 total prices it near 26–19.

Kansas City Chiefs went 6–11 in 2025 — #12 of 32 by point differential (+2.0/g), and were 3.5 wins unlucky versus their margin.

Miami Dolphins went 7–10 in 2025 — #24 of 32 by point differential (-4.5/g).

Kansas City Chiefs face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #5).