Sunday, September 27 at 1:00 PM EDT
KC
-8.5
-455
Total
44.5
MIA
+8.5
+350
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 8.5 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,270 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.4% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.6–51.1%) is taken into account.
- Total 44.5 — spread in the 7-10 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 50.4% of the time across 1,281 of them.
Last three seasons
KC
15-23 ATS · 24-14 SU · 13-25 O/U
went under in 25 of 38
MIA
15-20 ATS · 15-20 SU · 18-17 O/U
8-12 ATS as an underdog
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Kansas City Chiefs open a 8.5-point favorite over Miami Dolphins — about 82% implied to win outright. The 44.5 total prices it near 27–18.
Kansas City Chiefs went 6–11 in 2025 — #12 of 32 by point differential (+2.0/g), and were 3.5 wins unlucky versus their margin.
Miami Dolphins went 7–10 in 2025 — #24 of 32 by point differential (-4.5/g).
Kansas City Chiefs face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #5).
2025 team profiles
Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins