Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM EDT
LV
+8.5
+310
Total
44.5
NE
-8.5
-395
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 8.5 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,270 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.4% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.6–51.1%) is taken into account.
- Total 44.5 — spread in the 7-10 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 50.4% of the time across 1,281 of them.
Last three seasons
LV
16-19 ATS · 8-27 SU · 17-18 O/U
NE
21-16-2 ATS · 21-18 SU · 23-16 O/U
went over in 23 of 39
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
New England Patriots open a 8.5-point favorite over Las Vegas Raiders — about 80% implied to win outright. The 44.5 total prices it near 27–18.
Las Vegas Raiders went 3–14 in 2025 — #32 of 32 by point differential (-11.2/g).
New England Patriots went 14–3 in 2025 — #2 of 32 by point differential (+10.0/g), but +1.5 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
New England Patriots face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #6).
2025 team profiles
Las Vegas Raiders
New England Patriots