

Sunday, September 20 at 4:25 PM EDT
MIA
+13.5
+625
Total
45.5
SF
-13.5
-950
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 13.5 sits half a point short of 14, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
- Spread 13.5 — the 10-14 point band. In 671 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (44.4–51.9%) is taken into account.
- Total 45.5 — spread in the 10-14 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.2% of the time across 677 of them.
Last three seasons
MIA
15-20 ATS · 15-20 SU · 18-17 O/U
8-12 ATS as an underdog
SF
18-19 ATS · 20-17 SU · 21-15 O/U
15-10 ATS as a favorite
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
San Francisco 49ers open a 13.5-point favorite over Miami Dolphins — about 90% implied to win outright. The 45.5 total prices it near 30–16.
Miami Dolphins went 7–10 in 2025 — #24 of 32 by point differential (-4.5/g).
San Francisco 49ers went 12–5 in 2025 — #8 of 32 by point differential (+3.9/g), but +1.9 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
Miami Dolphins face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #2).
2025 team profiles
Miami Dolphins
San Francisco 49ers
