Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsNFL Analytics
All matchups
MIA
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers
SF

Sunday, September 20 at 4:25 PM EDT

MIA

+13.5

+625

Total

45.5

SF

-13.5

-950

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.

SpreadMIA +13.5-115
SpreadSF -13.5-105
TotalOver 45.5-108
TotalUnder 45.5-112
MoneylineMIA to win+625
MoneylineSF to win-950

How games at these numbers have gone

  • The key number. 13.5 sits half a point short of 14, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
  • Spread 13.5 — the 10-14 point band. In 671 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (44.4–51.9%) is taken into account.
  • Total 45.5 — spread in the 10-14 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.2% of the time across 677 of them.

Last three seasons

MIA

15-20 ATS · 15-20 SU · 18-17 O/U

8-12 ATS as an underdog

SF

18-19 ATS · 20-17 SU · 21-15 O/U

15-10 ATS as a favorite

Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.

The Read

San Francisco 49ers open a 13.5-point favorite over Miami Dolphins — about 90% implied to win outright. The 45.5 total prices it near 30–16.

Miami Dolphins went 7–10 in 2025 — #24 of 32 by point differential (-4.5/g).

San Francisco 49ers went 12–5 in 2025 — #8 of 32 by point differential (+3.9/g), but +1.9 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.

Miami Dolphins face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #2).

2025 team profiles

Miami Dolphins

2025 record7-10Point diff / game-4.5Pythag wins (rank)6.5 (#24)2026 SOS rank#2

San Francisco 49ers

2025 record12-5Point diff / game+3.9Pythag wins (rank)10.1 (#8)2026 SOS rank#18

Props on the board — MIA @ SF