Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsNFL Analytics
All matchups
NE
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
BUF

Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM EDT

NE

+3

+136

Total

49.5

BUF

-3

-162

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.

SpreadNE +3.0-110
SpreadBUF -3-110
TotalOver 49.5-110
TotalUnder 49.5-110
MoneylineNE to win+136
MoneylineBUF to win-162

How games at these numbers have gone

  • The key number. 3 is one of the numbers NFL games land on most often, so this line can push — and a half-point move off it changes far more games than a half-point anywhere else.
  • Spread 3 — the 3-4 point band. In 1,737 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.5% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
  • Total 49.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,551 of them.

Last three seasons

NE

21-16-2 ATS · 21-18 SU · 23-16 O/U

went over in 23 of 39

BUF

22-18 ATS · 29-11 SU · 24-15 O/U

went over in 24 of 39

Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.

The Read

Buffalo Bills open a 3-point favorite over New England Patriots — about 62% implied to win outright. The 49.5 total prices it near 26–23, one of the week's higher totals.

New England Patriots went 14–3 in 2025 — #2 of 32 by point differential (+10.0/g), but +1.5 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.

Buffalo Bills went 12–5 in 2025 — #6 of 32 by point differential (+6.8/g).

New England Patriots face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #6).

2025 team profiles

New England Patriots

2025 record14-3Point diff / game+10.0Pythag wins (rank)12.5 (#2)2026 SOS rank#6

Buffalo Bills

2025 record12-5Point diff / game+6.8Pythag wins (rank)11.2 (#6)2026 SOS rank#8

Props on the board — NE @ BUF