Jacksonville Jaguars open a 1.5-point favorite over New England Patriots — about 54% implied to win outright. The 45.5 total prices it near 24–22.

New England Patriots went 14–3 in 2025 — #2 of 32 by point differential (+10.0/g), but +1.5 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 13–4 in 2025 — #4 of 32 by point differential (+8.1/g).

New England Patriots face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #6).