Sunday, November 1 at 4:25 PM EST
NE
-7
-325
Total
43.5
MIA
+7
+260
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 7 is one of the numbers NFL games land on most often, so this line can push — and a half-point move off it changes far more games than a half-point anywhere else.
- Spread 7 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,282 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.3–50.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 43.5 — spread in the 7-10 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 50.5% of the time across 1,296 of them.
Last three seasons
NE
24-19-2 ATS · 25-20 SU · 27-18 O/U
went over in 27 of 45
MIA
17-22-1 ATS · 16-24 SU · 21-19 O/U
10-14-1 ATS as an underdog
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
New England Patriots open a 7-point favorite over Miami Dolphins — about 76% implied to win outright. The 43.5 total prices it near 25–18.
New England Patriots went 14–3 in 2025 — #2 of 32 by point differential (+10.0/g), but +1.5 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
Miami Dolphins went 7–10 in 2025 — #24 of 32 by point differential (-4.5/g).
New England Patriots face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #6).
2025 team profiles
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins