Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM EDT
NYJ
+8.5
+320
Total
45.5
CHI
-8.5
-410
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 8.5 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,270 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.4% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.6–51.1%) is taken into account.
- Total 45.5 — spread in the 7-10 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 50.4% of the time across 1,281 of them.
Last three seasons
NYJ
14-21 ATS · 9-26 SU · 21-14 O/U
went over in 21 of 35
CHI
20-14-3 ATS · 18-19 SU · 17-20 O/U
20-14-3 against the spread
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Chicago Bears open a 8.5-point favorite over New York Jets — about 80% implied to win outright. The 45.5 total prices it near 27–19.
New York Jets went 3–14 in 2025 — #30 of 32 by point differential (-11.9/g).
Chicago Bears went 11–6 in 2025 — #16 of 32 by point differential (+1.5/g), but +1.9 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
Chicago Bears face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #1).
2025 team profiles
New York Jets
Chicago Bears