Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsNFL Analytics
All matchups
NYJ
New York Jets @ Detroit Lions
DET

Sunday, September 27 at 1:00 PM EDT

NYJ

+7

+270

Total

48.5

DET

-7

-340

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.

SpreadNYJ +7.0-110
SpreadDET -7-110
TotalOver 48.5-110
TotalUnder 48.5-110
MoneylineNYJ to win+270
MoneylineDET to win-340

How games at these numbers have gone

  • The key number. 7 is one of the numbers NFL games land on most often, so this line can push — and a half-point move off it changes far more games than a half-point anywhere else.
  • Spread 7 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,270 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.4% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.6–51.1%) is taken into account.
  • Total 48.5 — spread in the 7-10 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 50.4% of the time across 1,281 of them.

Last three seasons

NYJ

14-21 ATS · 9-26 SU · 21-14 O/U

went over in 21 of 35

DET

20-15-1 ATS · 25-11 SU · 21-14 O/U

17-11-1 ATS as a favorite

Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.

The Read

Detroit Lions open a 7-point favorite over New York Jets — about 77% implied to win outright. The 48.5 total prices it near 28–21, one of the week's higher totals.

New York Jets went 3–14 in 2025 — #30 of 32 by point differential (-11.9/g).

Detroit Lions went 9–8 in 2025 — #10 of 32 by point differential (+4.0/g).

Detroit Lions drew one of the softest 2026 slates (strength of schedule #27).

2025 team profiles

New York Jets

2025 record3-14Point diff / game-11.9Pythag wins (rank)3.9 (#30)2026 SOS rank#12

Detroit Lions

2025 record9-8Point diff / game+4.0Pythag wins (rank)10.0 (#10)2026 SOS rank#27

Props on the board — NYJ @ DET