Sunday, October 18 at 1:00 PM EDT
NYJ
+7.5
+275
Total
43.5
NE
-7.5
-345
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 7.5 sits half a point past 7, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
- Spread 7.5 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,279 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 43.5 — spread in the 7-10 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 50.6% of the time across 1,293 of them.
Last three seasons
NYJ
16-22-1 ATS · 10-29 SU · 22-17 O/U
10-14-1 ATS as an underdog
NE
24-17-2 ATS · 24-19 SU · 25-18 O/U
13-9 ATS home
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
New England Patriots open a 7.5-point favorite over New York Jets — about 78% implied to win outright. The 43.5 total prices it near 26–18.
New York Jets went 3–14 in 2025 — #30 of 32 by point differential (-11.9/g).
New England Patriots went 14–3 in 2025 — #2 of 32 by point differential (+10.0/g), but +1.5 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
New England Patriots face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #6).
2025 team profiles
New York Jets
New England Patriots