Bobby's Bets
Bobby's BetsNFL Analytics
All matchups
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
DAL

Thursday, October 8 at 8:15 PM EDT

TB

+3.5

+170

Total

52.5

DAL

-3.5

-205

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.

SpreadTB +3.5-110
SpreadDAL -3.5-110
TotalOver 52.5-110
TotalUnder 52.5-110
MoneylineTB to win+170
MoneylineDAL to win-205

How games at these numbers have gone

  • The key number. 3.5 sits half a point past 3, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
  • Spread 3.5 — the 3-4 point band. In 1,737 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.5% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
  • Total 52.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,551 of them.

Last three seasons

TB

15-21 ATS · 18-18 SU · 21-15 O/U

8-13 ATS as a favorite

DAL

14-21 ATS · 14-21 SU · 25-10 O/U

went over in 25 of 35

Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.

The Read

Dallas Cowboys open a 3.5-point favorite over Tampa Bay Buccaneers — about 67% implied to win outright. The 52.5 total prices it near 28–25, one of the week's higher totals.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 8–9 in 2025 — #20 of 32 by point differential (-1.8/g).

Dallas Cowboys went 7–9 in 2025 — #19 of 32 by point differential (-2.4/g).

2025 team profiles

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2025 record8-9Point diff / game-1.8Pythag wins (rank)7.7 (#20)2026 SOS rank#21

Dallas Cowboys

2025 record7-9Point diff / game-2.4Pythag wins (rank)7.7 (#19)2026 SOS rank#20

Props on the board — TB @ DAL