

Thursday, October 8 at 8:15 PM EDT
TB
+3.5
+170
Total
52.5
DAL
-3.5
-205
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 3.5 sits half a point past 3, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
- Spread 3.5 — the 3-4 point band. In 1,737 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.5% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
- Total 52.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,551 of them.
Last three seasons
TB
15-21 ATS · 18-18 SU · 21-15 O/U
8-13 ATS as a favorite
DAL
14-21 ATS · 14-21 SU · 25-10 O/U
went over in 25 of 35
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Dallas Cowboys open a 3.5-point favorite over Tampa Bay Buccaneers — about 67% implied to win outright. The 52.5 total prices it near 28–25, one of the week's higher totals.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 8–9 in 2025 — #20 of 32 by point differential (-1.8/g).
Dallas Cowboys went 7–9 in 2025 — #19 of 32 by point differential (-2.4/g).
2025 team profiles
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys
