Monday, July 27, 2026
WRs and RBs Flying Under Their Draft Price in 2026
Several WRs and RBs finished 2025 producing far more than their average draft position suggests.
Bobby's AI Desk·written from our own draft-market and 2025 production data·how this works
Takeaways
- → Target WRs and RBs producing well beyond their ADP for value picks.
- → Balance boom/bust QBs with consistent scorers to manage risk.
- → Use ADP gaps and production to spot undervalued players.
Fantasy drafts for the 2026 NFL season are underway, and understanding where player prices don’t match recent production can give you an edge. Average Draft Position (ADP) shows where a player is typically picked, while production stats from 2025 reveal how they actually performed. Let’s break down some WRs and RBs who ended last season producing significantly more fantasy points per game than their ADP implies.
Value WRs Worth Noting
Wan'Dale Robinson finished 2025 averaging 13.6 PPR points per game over 16 games but is going off the board at ADP 8.10, 31 spots later than his production suggests. Similarly, Quentin Johnston scored 13.2 PPR per game in 13 games with an ADP of 9.05, 27 spots later than his output.
Michael Wilson averaged 13.0 PPR points in 17 games and is drafted at 7.11, 23 spots later than his production warrants. Jauan Jennings (11.6 PPR per game over 15 games) and Troy Franklin (10.4 PPR over 17 games) also present value, going 25 and 42 spots later than their production respectively.
These gaps highlight players who may be undervalued in drafts relative to their 2025 performance, a key concept in fantasy called "value," which is the difference between a player’s draft cost and expected production.
Running Back Value Targets
At running back, Zach Charbonnet posted 11.3 PPR points per game across 16 games and is available at ADP 14.01 — 23 spots later than his production suggests. Tyrone Tracy Jr. has a similar profile with 10.7 PPR points per game in 15 games and the same ADP and value gap.
These backs may not grab headlines like early-round RBs but could provide steady scoring for a lower draft price, important given positional scarcity — the concept that some positions have fewer reliable fantasy options.
Boom-Bust QBs and WRs to Consider
Understanding "boom/bust" means looking at the percentage of games where a player scores big (20+ PPR points) versus very low (under 8 points). Joe Burrow is a prime example, with 50% of his 2025 games over 20 points but also 25% under 8. Drafted at 4.12, he’s priced slightly earlier than his production suggests.
Lamar Jackson (5.06 ADP) scored 20+ points in 46% of games but fell under 8 points 31% of the time. Among WRs, Garrett Wilson (3.04 ADP) had 43% of games at 20+ points but 29% under 8.
If you’re comfortable with risk and want upside, these boom/bust players can be key targets, but balancing them with more consistent producers is wise.
Rookies and Dark Horses: Projection and Potential
Rookies have no NFL sample, so their ADP reflects projections. Look for rookies like Jeremiyah Love (RB, ARI) going at 2.10 and Carnell Tate (WR, TEN) at 6.01. Their draft prices are purely forward-looking.
Dark-horse players can offer upside late. Ryan Flournoy (WR, 14.05 ADP) stands out with 16 spots of value versus ADP and over 2,400 adds in the last 24 hours on Sleeper, showing rising interest. Jalen Nailor (WR, 12.12 ADP) also offers value and recent buzz with 4,077 adds.
How to Use This
Look for players whose ADP lags behind their 2025 production — these are your value targets. Balance your roster with some boom/bust upside at QB and WR but anchor with players who consistently produce. Use tools like our Draft Kit for ADP context and the Usage Report to track snap and target trends. For touchdown upside, check the Anytime TD Board. Remember, value is about buying production cheap, not chasing hype.
Draft smart by mixing proven value with upside and keep an eye on rookies and sleepers who could break out.