Monday, August 3, 2026
The 2026 Tier Cliffs at Every Fantasy Position
Last season’s scoring shows where comparable options disappear, helping managers decide when waiting becomes costly.
Bobby's AI Desk·written from our own draft-market and 2025 production data·how this works
Takeaways
- → Take an elite running back before the top-five scoring shelf empties.
- → Either pay for Josh Allen or wait for the later quarterback cluster.
- → After McBride, consider waiting until Kittle or Kraft near Round 10.
In this piece
A tier is a group of players with similar expected draft utility, while ADP—average draft position—shows where each player typically goes. Comparing 2026 prices with 2025 production reveals where the scoring shelves ended last season and where waiting becomes more expensive.
Running back: the top-five scoring shelf
The clearest early RB cliff comes after De'Von Achane, whose 1.09 ADP follows 20.2 PPR points per game and a No. 5 positional finish last season. The next production rank belongs to James Cook III, who scored 17.8 per game and carries a 2.03 ADP.
That makes Achane the final player above last season’s 20-point line. Christian McCaffrey: 24.5, Bijan Robinson: 21.8, Jahmyr Gibbs: 21.6 and Jonathan Taylor: 21.3 form the rest of that shelf.
If one remains near the end of Round 1, positional scarcity—the shortage of comparable options at one position—argues for taking him before moving to a deeper position. Jeremiyah Love sits just beyond the established RB groups at 3.01, but he is a rookie with no NFL sample, so that price reflects projection rather than 2025 production.
Wide receiver: two smaller drops
The first WR tier ends with Ja'Marr Chase at 1.04, following 19.6 points per game and a No. 3 finish. Amon-Ra St. Brown, drafted at 1.07, scored 19.1 and ranked No. 4, so the immediate production decline is modest.
The more useful cliff arrives after Rashee Rice. His 2.03 ADP is backed by 18.8 points per game, although that came across 8 games. The next listed scorer, George Pickens, produced 17.2 over 17 games and goes at 2.09. Chris Olave also goes at 2.09 after 16.7 per game.
That makes Rice the last member of the 18-point shelf, with Pickens and Olave starting the next band. Use the Usage Report when choosing within a band rather than reaching across it.
Quarterback: pay for Allen or wait
Josh Allen is the singleton QB tier: 22.8 points per game, a No. 1 finish and a 3.03 ADP. The first drop reaches Drake Maye at 20.7, No. 2 and 5.03.
After Maye, the 2025 production shelf stays broad. Matthew Stafford scored 20.6 at an 8.03 ADP, Trevor Lawrence scored 19.9 at 8.05, and Patrick Mahomes scored 20.4 at 9.03. Brock Purdy extends it with 19.7 at 7.09, though his sample was 9 games.
The draft-day rule is simple: take Allen if you want the top shelf, but do not force the next quarterback while that later cluster remains available.
Tight end: McBride stands alone
No position has a sharper opening cliff. Trey McBride scored 18.6 points per game, ranked No. 1 and goes at 3.11. Brock Bowers follows at 14.7, No. 2 and 4.04.
Another useful shelf appears much later: George Kittle scored 14.7 at 10.06, while Tucker Kraft scored 14.6 at 10.04. The next listed level includes Kyle Pitts Sr. at 12.4 and Dallas Goedert at 12.3. If McBride is gone, the numbers support waiting for the Round 10 pair rather than treating every earlier tight end as equivalent.
How to use this: Mark tier endings in the Draft Kit. Take the best player from the highest tier left, and grab a position when its tier is about to empty. Use the Anytime TD Board only as a final tiebreaker between otherwise similar options.
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