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The Fantasy Desk

Thursday, August 13, 2026

Production-Based 2026 Rankings at QB, RB, WR and TE

Last season’s per-game scoring clarifies the top tiers and exposes several draft prices that require a substantial rebound.

Bobby's AI Desk·written from our own draft-market and 2025 production data·how this works

Takeaways

  • Allen leads QB, but Stafford and Mahomes offer comparable 2025 scoring several rounds later.
  • McCaffrey owns the RB production lead; the first clear decline follows Achane.
  • McBride’s scoring gap supports paying for tight-end scarcity.

Fantasy rankings should start with what players actually scored, then account for price. Here, ADP means average draft position, or where a player is typically selected, and every ranking begins with 2025 PPR points per game from last season. A tier is a group of players with similar draft standing; use the Draft Kit to track where each group ends.

QB: Allen first, then the full-season producers

1. Josh Allen — 22.8 PPR points per game 2. Drake Maye — 20.7 3. Matthew Stafford — 20.6 4. Patrick Mahomes — 20.4

Allen is the clear QB1 after leading the position across 16 games, and his 3.03 ADP makes him the only quarterback going in the first three rounds. Maye produced his 20.7 across 17 games and sits in Tier 2 at 5.02.

Stafford also played 17 games, yet his 7.12 ADP comes well after Maye. Mahomes scored 20.4 over 14 games and costs 9.02. Those two are stronger production-based prices than Joe Burrow, whose 5.09 ADP is 16 picks earlier than his 16.8 from 2025 supports. Burrow was boom/bust — alternating high and low weekly scores — with 50% of games above 20 points and 25% below eight.

RB: McCaffrey leads a four-player opening group

1. Christian McCaffrey — 24.5 2. Bijan Robinson — 21.8 3. Jahmyr Gibbs — 21.6 4. Jonathan Taylor — 21.3

All four played 17 games, removing sample-size guesswork from the order. McCaffrey led 2025 RB production and joins Robinson in Tier 1, although Robinson goes earlier at 1.02 than McCaffrey at 1.06. Gibbs and Taylor form Tier 2 at 1.02 and 1.07.

The decline starts after them: De'Von Achane scored 20.2 over 16 games, while the next listed back, James Cook III, posted 17.8 over 17. Be careful with Bhayshul Tuten at 5.05: his 2026 price is 25 picks earlier than his 5.9 from last season supports.

WR: Nacua owns the production edge

1. Puka Nacua — 23.4 2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 21.2 3. Ja'Marr Chase — 19.6 4. Amon-Ra St. Brown — 19.1

Nacua, Smith-Njigba and Chase compose Tier 1. Nacua’s 23.4 across 16 games leads, while Smith-Njigba’s 21.2 came across 17. Chase played 16 games. St. Brown heads Tier 2 after scoring 19.1 over 17.

Value means getting more prior production at a cheaper 2026 price. Justin Jefferson’s 2.02 ADP is 14 picks earlier than his 11.9 from 2025 supports. Later, Quentin Johnston at 8.11 is drafted 24 picks later than his 13.2 production supports, while Michael Wilson at 8.03 is 23 picks later after scoring 13.0.

TE: McBride stands alone

1. Trey McBride — 18.6 2. Brock Bowers — 14.7 3. George Kittle — 14.7 4. Tucker Kraft — 14.6

McBride is the only Tier 1 tight end and played 17 games. He topped 20 points in 41% of games and fell below eight in only 6%. That supports his 3.11 ADP despite positional scarcity, the advantage created when few players at a position separate from the pack.

Bowers played 12 games, Kittle 11 and Kraft 8, so their nearly identical scoring came in shorter samples. Their prices differ sharply: 4.05, 10.06 and 9.11.

How to use this: Draft within tiers rather than forcing one fixed list. Check role data in the Usage Report, then use the Anytime TD Board as a separate view of touchdown pricing, not a replacement for production.

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Written by Bobby's AI desk from live draft-market and 2025 production data — every number traces to a stored fact sheet. Data sources: market ADP via FantasyFootballCalculator public drafts; community add/drop trends via Sleeper; player production via nflverse; odds via DraftKings; headlines via ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, and ProFootballTalk. Tools referenced: Draft Kit, Usage Report, Anytime TD Board.Full methodology. Not betting or financial advice — play smart.