Saturday, August 15, 2026
The Draft-Day Tier Cliffs at Every Position
Last season’s scoring shows when to act at each position and when the player pool still gives you room to wait.
Bobby's AI Desk·written from our own draft-market and 2025 production data·how this works
Takeaways
- → Pay for Allen or wait beyond the Round 5 quarterback rush.
- → Treat Josh Jacobs and Chris Olave as key tier-ending decisions.
- → At tight end, buy McBride’s edge or target the final Tier 2 options.
In this piece
Average draft position, or ADP, shows where a player typically leaves drafts. It matters less than the tier structure: tiers group players with similar production, and the key is recognizing when the highest remaining tier is nearly empty.
The rule is simple: take the best player from the highest tier left, then prioritize a position when its current tier is about to disappear. Here is where the supplied board and last season’s scoring put those pressure points.
QB: Pay for Allen or wait past the Round 5 rush
Josh Allen stands alone in Tier 1 at an ADP of 3.05 after ranking QB1 with 22.8 PPR points per game last season. Drake Maye, the only listed Tier 2 quarterback before Round 6, follows at 5.02 after finishing QB2 at 20.7.
The apparent cliff comes immediately afterward: Lamar Jackson goes at 5.07 after ranking QB15 with 16.5, while Joe Burrow goes at 5.08 after ranking QB20 with 16.8 across 8 games. But the position does not actually empty there. Matthew Stafford is Tier 2 at 7.11 after 20.6, Trevor Lawrence is Tier 2 at 8.07 after 19.9, and Patrick Mahomes is Tier 2 at 9.03 after 20.4.
Draft-day rule: take Allen if you want the standalone tier. Otherwise, do not let the Round 5 quarterback run manufacture urgency when Tier 2 production remains available later.
RB: The meaningful break arrives after Tier 3
The elite RB tiers are expensive. Christian McCaffrey scored 24.5 per game last season, Bijan Robinson scored 21.8, and Jahmyr Gibbs scored 21.6; all carry an ADP of 1.06 or earlier.
The more actionable cliff sits around Round 3. Josh Jacobs is Tier 3 at 3.04 after ranking RB9 with 15.8 per game. Below him, Breece Hall is Tier 4 at the same 3.04 after ranking RB20 with 13.0, while Kenneth Walker is Tier 6 at 3.01 after ranking RB26 with 11.3.
That is a clear production step from Jacobs to Hall, even before the deeper drop to Walker. Jeremiyah Love also costs 3.04, but he is a rookie with no NFL sample, so that price is projection rather than evidence from 2025.
WR: Tier 2 lasts longer than the first round
The first WR cliff follows Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ja’Marr Chase, and Puka Nacua, the Tier 1 group drafted from 1.03 through 1.05. Tier 2, however, stretches to Chris Olave at 2.09. Olave ranked WR7 with 16.7 per game last season.
The next names are Nico Collins, Tier 3 at 2.11 with 15.1, and Zay Flowers, Tier 3 at 3.02 with 14.3. Olave therefore marks the cleanest “act now” point before Tier 2 empties.
Later, value means comparing a 2026 draft price with 2025 production. Wan’Dale Robinson at 7.06 and Quentin Johnston at 8.10 are each being drafted 24 picks later than last season’s production justifies, useful depth after the early tiers close.
TE: The widest early cliff, but multiple exit ramps
Positional scarcity means fewer usable options exist at one position than another. Trey McBride demonstrates it: Tier 1 at 3.09, TE1 last season and 18.6 per game. Brock Bowers follows at 4.04 with 14.7, a 3.9-point drop.
You can still wait for Tier 2. Tucker Kraft scored 14.6 and goes at 9.08; George Kittle scored 14.7 and goes at 10.05. Kittle sits directly above Dallas Goedert, Tier 3 at the same 10.05 with 12.3. That makes Kittle the final listed Tier 2 exit.
How to use this: Mark tier endings in the Draft Kit, verify roles with the Usage Report, and use the Anytime TD Board later for weekly scoring decisions. When two players are close, draft from the higher tier; when one player remains in a tier, treat that position as the priority.
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