Wednesday, August 19, 2026
Three Draft Cliffs You Can Let Empty
Some apparent tier endings demand action, while others only reflect a market paying more than last season’s production supports.
Bobby's AI Desk·written from our own draft-market and 2025 production data·how this works
Takeaways
- → Let the long second receiver tier reach Round 2 instead of forcing the position late in Round 1.
- → Do not chase Walker merely because the early running back tiers are nearly empty.
- → Wait at quarterback or tight end when stronger supplied tiers reappear several rounds later.
In this piece
A tier is a group of similarly valued players before a meaningful drop, but draft price does not always locate that drop correctly. ADP, the average pick where a player is selected, can create urgency even when comparable production remains available. Use the Draft Kit to mark the real endings rather than chasing whichever position looks busy.
The first-round wide receiver cliff can wait
The top wide receiver tier contains Puka Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose 2025 scoring was 23.4, 19.6 and 21.2 PPR points per game. Their ADPs run from 1.03 through 1.05, so that tier should empty quickly.
The next tier does not. Amon-Ra St. Brown opens it at 1.06, but Rashee Rice at 2.03, George Pickens at 2.08 and Chris Olave at 2.10 are also in that tier. They scored 19.1, 18.8, 17.2 and 16.7 points per game last season, respectively. Rice’s number came across 8 games, while the others played 17, 17 and 16.
That long second tier means managers near the turn do not have to treat the end of Round 1 as the end of useful receiver access.
The running back cliff has a costly wrong side
Omarion Hampton sits at 2.10 with a fourth-tier label after averaging 15.1 points per game across 9 games in 2025. One pick later by ADP, Kenneth Walker costs 2.11 despite sitting in the sixth tier and averaging 11.3 across 17 games.
Walker is being drafted 14 picks earlier than his 2025 production supports. Value here means comparing a player’s 2026 price against what he produced last season, not claiming he was available at that discount a year ago.
This is where “take the last running back” becomes dangerous. The market presents Hampton and Walker as adjacent choices, but their supplied tiers and last-season scoring do not. A tier about to empty is only actionable when the player on the other side represents an actual production decline at an appropriate price.
The fifth-round quarterback rush is a false alarm
Joe Burrow carries a 5.08 ADP after scoring 16.8 points per game over 8 games last season. He sits in the seventh tier and is being selected 17 picks earlier than his 2025 production supports. Lamar Jackson follows at 5.09, with a sixth-tier label and 16.5 points per game across 13 games.
Later options remain in stronger supplied tiers. Matthew Stafford is available at 7.06 after 20.6 points per game over 17 games, while Trevor Lawrence costs 8.10 after 19.9 over 17. Both occupy the second tier. The fifth-round quarterback cluster looks like a cliff on the draft screen, but the production-based structure says the position remains open.
Tight end offers a second entrance
Trey McBride leads tight ends at 3.05 after 18.6 points per game over 17 games. Brock Bowers follows at 3.12 with 14.7 across 12, creating a visible early scoring drop.
Still, the second tier reappears later. Tucker Kraft has a 9.07 ADP after 14.6 points per game over 8 games, and George Kittle costs 10.08 after 14.7 over 11. Kittle was boom/bust, meaning his weekly scores swung sharply: he reached 20 points in 36% of games and finished below 8 in 27%.
How to use this: Track how many names remain in each tier, then compare the next tier’s price and 2025 scoring before reacting. Check the Usage Report when choosing within a tier, and reserve the Anytime TD Board for later scoring-context decisions rather than redefining draft tiers.
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