Thursday, August 27, 2026
The Tier Cliffs That Should Drive Your 2026 Draft
Last season’s production shows when waiting at running back, wide receiver, quarterback and tight end becomes costly.
Bobby's AI Desk·written from our own draft-market and 2025 production data·how this works
Takeaways
- → Prioritize James Cook III before running back’s second tier empties.
- → George Pickens marks the end of wide receiver’s second production tier.
- → Waiting works at quarterback and tight end until Lawrence or Kittle approaches.
In this piece
Average draft position, or ADP, is the typical spot where a player is selected. A tier cliff is where the next group of available players delivered meaningfully less production, and finding those breaks matters more than filling positions in a fixed order.
All scoring below comes from the 2025 season, so it describes last season rather than promising 2026 results.
Running back: finish the second tier
The first running back break comes after James Cook III, whose 2.01 ADP, RB6 finish and 17.8 PPR points per game place him at the end of the second tier. Immediately below him, third-tier Chase Brown averaged 16.6 as the RB7, while Derrick Henry averaged 16.4 as the RB8 at 2.05.
That initial drop is manageable. The more dangerous break appears deeper in Round 2. Henry sits above it, while Kenneth Walker carries a 2.10 ADP despite averaging 11.3 and ranking RB26 last season. Omarion Hampton, drafted at 2.11, averaged 15.1 across 9 games and ranked RB16.
The lesson is not to follow the position run automatically. Use the Draft Kit to identify the highest remaining tier, because adjacent ADPs can hide very different 2025 production.
Wide receiver: the second tier ends around Pickens
The elite cliff arrives quickly. Jaxon Smith-Njigba averaged 21.2 as the WR2 with a 1.05 ADP; second-tier Amon-Ra St. Brown followed at 19.1, WR4 and 1.06.
The next actionable cutoff is the end of the second tier. Chris Olave averaged 16.7 as the WR7 at 2.08, and George Pickens averaged 17.2 as the WR6 at 2.09. Below that band, third-tier Nico Collins averaged 15.1 as the WR11, while A.J. Brown averaged 14.7 as the WR12.
That makes Pickens the clearest player just above the cliff and the third-tier receivers the fallback group. Check role data in the Usage Report when choosing among players inside the same tier.
Quarterback: waiting reveals better tiers
Josh Allen stands alone in the first tier after averaging 22.8 and finishing QB1, but his 3.10 ADP requires an early commitment. Drake Maye, the QB2 at 20.7, opens the second tier at 5.03.
The useful waiting point comes later. Matthew Stafford averaged 20.6, ranked QB3 and costs 7.05. Trevor Lawrence averaged 19.9, ranked QB4 and costs 8.07. Lawrence is the final listed second-tier quarterback, putting him just above the cliff. Third-tier Caleb Williams averaged 18.7 as the QB7 at 8.06.
Do not confuse draft order with tier order: a higher ADP does not automatically mean stronger last-season production.
Tight end: Kittle is the late cutoff
Trey McBride creates the sharpest early positional break: 18.6, TE1 and a 3.05 ADP. Brock Bowers follows at 14.7, TE2 and 3.11.
If you pass, the late second-tier cutoff is George Kittle at 10.02. He averaged 14.7 across 11 games and ranked TE3. Just before him, Tucker Kraft averaged 14.6 across 8 games at 9.02. Just below Kittle by ADP, fifth-tier Sam LaPorta averaged 11.9 across 9 games at 10.06.
How to use this: Take the best player from the highest tier left, then grab a position when that tier is one pick from empty. Use the Anytime TD Board only as tie-break research, not a reason to cross a tier cliff.
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