Saturday, August 29, 2026
Which 2025 Fantasy Averages Deserve Your Trust
Sample-weighted scoring ranges separate sturdy full-season evidence from averages built on fewer games.
Bobby's AI Desk·written from our own draft-market and 2025 production data·how this works
Takeaways
- → Trust similar scoring averages more when they come from 16- or 17-game samples.
- → Compare weighted evidence ranges with ADP instead of treating 2025 averages as forecasts.
- → Price rookies as projections because they have no NFL scoring sample.
In this piece
Last season’s scoring is useful, but every per-game average should not carry equal weight. The method here takes a player’s 2025 per-game scoring, regresses it toward his positional average based on how many games we actually saw, then places a range around the result. This is not a 2026 forecast. It is last year’s evidence, weighted honestly.
Small samples lose authority
Brock Purdy averaged 19.71 points across 9 games last season. After his 2025 scoring is regressed for that 9-game sample, the useful evidence range is 9.84-25.78 points per game. The big average shrinks hard under the weighting because fewer games leave more room for uncertainty.
Compare that with Matthew Stafford. His 20.61 average came across 17 games, producing a regressed evidence range of 13.19-25.20. Drake Maye also played 17 games, averaging 20.70, and his range is 14.63-23.90.
Purdy’s season still matters. It simply gets less authority than two similar averages supported by 17-game samples.
Full-season stars still get pulled toward average
Regression does not erase strong seasons. It prevents one season from being treated as a permanent scoring level.
Christian McCaffrey averaged 24.51 over 17 games. His weighted 2025 evidence remains substantial at 13.53-27.68, even after being pulled toward the running back average. His ADP, or average draft position, is 1.07, so managers are paying near the top of the board for that evidence.
Puka Nacua averaged 23.44 across 16 games, with a regressed range of 10.65-28.07. He is being selected at 1.03. Jaxon Smith-Njigba supplied 21.17 over 17 games, leaving a 11.36-24.23 range at an ADP of 1.06.
Those ranges belong beside current prices in the Draft Kit. They show what last season supports without pretending to settle what happens next.
An average can hide a rough weekly ride
Boom/bust describes a player whose weekly scores frequently swing between high and low outcomes. That distribution matters because two players with similar averages can reach them differently.
Joe Burrow scored at least 20 points in 50% of his 2025 games but fell below 8 in 25%. His 16.8 average came from 8 games, and he now carries a 5.10 ADP. Lamar Jackson reached 20 in 46% of games and finished below 8 in 31%, while averaging 16.5 across 13 games.
Use the Usage Report to study how scoring was assembled, then the Anytime TD Board when evaluating weekly touchdown-dependent outcomes.
Rookies require a different standard
Rookies have no NFL sample, so their prices are projections rather than weighted professional evidence. Jeremiyah Love is drafted at 3.03, while Jadarian Price goes at 7.02 and Carnell Tate at 7.08. Their draft costs may be reasonable, but last season cannot validate them the way it can a veteran’s range.
How to use this: Start with the range, check how many games created it, then compare that evidence with ADP. Pay more for sturdy samples when prices are close, and treat small-sample averages or rookie costs as assumptions that need wider margins for error.
Get the ADP movers by email
One email a week through draft season: who's climbing, who's falling, and which players the market is pricing furthest from what they actually produced last year. Free — no account needed.
Weekly through Week 1. No spam, unsubscribe any time.