Tuesday, September 8, 2026
The 2026 Tier Cliffs at Every Fantasy Position
Last season’s scoring shows where comparable options disappear, helping managers decide when waiting becomes more expensive than drafting.
Bobby's AI Desk·written from our own draft-market and 2025 production data·how this works
Takeaways
- → Prioritize Olave over Collins when both are available near pick 2.08.
- → Lawrence marks a later quarterback boundary after last season’s 19.9 points per game.
- → Draft the final player in a higher tier instead of reaching below the cliff.
In this piece
A tier is a cluster of players with similar fantasy profiles, and the cliff is where the next option becomes meaningfully weaker. ADP, or average draft position, shows the typical pick where each player goes; comparing 2026 ADP with last season’s production reveals when waiting carries a real cost.
Running back and wide receiver
The sharpest early running back choice appears at 2.09. Ashton Jeanty averaged 14.4 PPR points per game last season and ranks in the third tier, while Kenneth Walker shares that 2.09 ADP after averaging 11.3 and landing in the sixth tier. Same price, a 3.1-point production gap. Jeanty sits above that cliff; Walker sits below it.
The wide receiver break is cleaner. Chris Olave averaged 16.7 last season and sits in the second tier at 2.08. Nico Collins, also at 2.08, averaged 15.1 and sits in the third tier. That makes Olave the final type of receiver to prioritize before accepting the lower band.
Do not assume draft order always matches the tiers. CeeDee Lamb goes at 1.10, but his 15.5 points per game and third-tier placement sit below Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 19.1 at 1.07 and Drake London’s 16.8 at 2.02.
Quarterback
Josh Allen stands alone in the first tier after leading quarterbacks at 22.8 points per game last season. The next useful boundary runs through Trevor Lawrence, whose 19.9 and fourth-place production rank put him in the second tier at 8.07.
Immediately below that scoring level are Jalen Hurts at 18.8 and Caleb Williams at 18.7, both in the third tier. Lawrence is the player just above this cliff, even though Hurts goes earlier at 7.04 and Williams at 8.01. That mismatch supports waiting rather than forcing quarterback in Round 5, where Joe Burrow goes at 5.06 after averaging 16.8 across 8 games last season.
Tight end
Tight end presents the clearest case of positional scarcity, meaning fewer comparable options remain at the position. Trey McBride averaged 18.6 last season. The next tier begins with Brock Bowers at 14.7, a 3.9-point drop.
The second cliff comes after George Kittle’s 14.7 and Tucker Kraft’s 14.6. The next group includes Kyle Pitts Sr. at 12.4, Dallas Goedert at 12.3 and Harold Fannin Jr. at 11.6. Kraft’s 9.08 ADP makes him the last listed second-tier option, while Goedert remains available at 11.01 below the cliff.
If a tier gets away
Missing a tier should not trigger a reach. Look for value, meaning a 2026 price that is cheaper than 2025 production suggests. Troy Franklin goes at 15.09, drafted 47 picks later than last season’s 10.4 points per game justify. Tyrone Tracy Jr. goes at 14.06, drafted 32 picks later than his 10.7 justify. Jauan Jennings offers another receiver fallback at 12.11, drafted 27 picks later than his 11.6 justify.
How to use this: Mark tiers in the Draft Kit, then take the best player from the highest tier left. When only one acceptable option remains at a position, draft him. Use the Usage Report and Anytime TD Board only as tiebreakers within the same tier.
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