Late-Round Dart Throws Backed by 2025 Production

In this piece

De'Zhaun StriblingWR · SFADP 11.05Makai LemonWR · PHIADP 11.09Tre TuckerWR · LVADP 12.03Denzel BostonWR · CLEADP 12.10Keenan AllenWR · INDADP 12.11Jordyn TysonWR · NOADP 13.04Juwan JohnsonTE · NOADP 13.11Jauan JenningsWR · MINADP 14.02

Late-round picks work best as controlled swings, not players you feel obligated to keep. Start with ADP, the average spot where a player is selected, then look for value—the gap between his 2026 draft price and what his 2025 production supported.

The clearest dark-horse discounts

Tre Tucker has an ADP of 12.03, even though his 2026 price sits 13 picks later than last season’s production justifies. He also drew 95,484 adds in the last day, the largest total among this dark-horse group. That combination makes him a reasonable bench swing, though popularity does not make the pick safe.

The discount is slightly larger for Devaughn Vele. His 14.04 ADP is 14 picks later than his 2025 production supports, and he recorded 62,363 adds in the last day. Cooper Kupp goes at 14.03, with his current price 15 picks later than last season’s production justifies.

At tight end, Juwan Johnson is available at 13.11, or 6 picks later than his 2025 production supports. He is useful when attacking positional scarcity, the advantage created when reliable options at a position become harder to find. Terrance Ferguson is deeper at 15.05, but his price is actually 1 pick earlier than last season’s production warrants. That is a projection swing, not a production discount.

The deepest veterans with scoring evidence

The strongest late veteran case belongs to Jauan Jennings. His 14.02 ADP is 35 picks later than his 2025 production justifies after he averaged 11.6 PPR points per game across 15 games last season. That is the cleanest mix of price, scoring and sample among the deep names.

Ryan Flournoy goes even later at 14.11. His 2026 draft price is 22 picks later than his 2025 production supports, although that production was a more modest 7.6 PPR points per game over 15 games. The discount is real; the scoring baseline explains why the market remains cautious.

One round earlier, Keenan Allen carries a 12.11 ADP after averaging 10.7 PPR points per game in 17 games last season. His current price is 24 picks later than that production justifies. Compare these options in the Draft Kit rather than treating every double-digit-round receiver as interchangeable.

Rookie darts are projection bets

Rookies have no NFL sample, so their prices reflect projection rather than established professional production. The deepest listed options are Jordyn Tyson at 13.04 and Denzel Boston at 12.10. De'Zhaun Stribling costs 11.05, while Makai Lemon goes at 11.09.

These are better fits for managers who already built stable starters. Unlike Jennings or Allen, none can be checked against a 2025 NFL scoring baseline. Draft one for the possible payoff, but avoid filling every reserve spot with the same kind of uncertainty.

Treat adds as a prompt, not proof

Recent activity can identify where managers are looking, but it cannot establish fantasy value by itself. Michael Mayer drew 444,618 adds in the last day, while Kaelon Black drew 262,458. Those totals are reasons to investigate, not reasons to chase.

Budget two or three bench spots for dart throws. After the opening games, use the Usage Report to check whether those players are earning routes or touches. Cut bait when the hoped-for role is absent and a better waiver option appears; a late pick’s low cost is permission to move quickly. The Anytime TD Board can help with weekly decisions, but touchdown prices should not replace evidence of regular usage.

How to use this: Prioritize one or two veterans whose 2026 prices trail their 2025 production, then add one projection-based swing. Keep the productive signal and churn the empty roster spots.