Sunday, September 20, 2026
The Draft-Day Tier Cliffs at Every Fantasy Position
Last season’s scoring shows where each position thins out and when waiting becomes more costly than taking the final player in a tier.
Bobby's AI Desk·written from our own draft-market and 2025 production data·how this works
Takeaways
- → Treat Rice at 2.05 as the final receiver before a 3.7-point production drop.
- → Pay for Allen at 2.10 or wait for the deeper quarterback tiers.
- → Target Kraft or Kincaid before tight end falls from 10.5 to 5.1 points.
In this piece
A tier cliff is the point where the next available group produced materially less than the group before it. ADP, the average draft position, shows the market price as round.pick; comparing it with last season’s production reveals when a position is about to thin out.
The rule is simple: take the best player from the highest tier left, then prioritize a position when that tier has one option remaining. Track the live board in the Draft Kit.
Running back: two early breaks
The first RB cliff comes immediately after Bijan Robinson, last season’s RB 1 at 21.8 PPR points per game, and Jahmyr Gibbs, RB 2 at 21.6. The next production-ranked back, James Cook III, scored 17.8, a drop of 3.8 from Gibbs. Cook’s 2.04 ADP and Derrick Henry’s 1.12 ADP mark the next available tier.
A later break separates Javonte Williams at 15.2 and D’Andre Swift at 14.3 from Kenneth Walker at 11.3. Their ADPs do not follow that 2025 scoring order: Walker goes at 2.10, Williams at 3.04 and Swift at 4.06. Sort by tier rather than blindly following the room.
Wide receiver: the second-round line matters
The clear WR cliff sits between Rashee Rice and Nico Collins. Rice produced 18.8 PPR points per game across 8 games last season, ranked WR 4 and carries a 2.05 ADP. Collins ranked WR 5 at 15.1 with a 2.07 ADP. That is a 3.7-point scoring gap across two picks.
Because Rice’s number came from only 8 games, treat it as less settled than the 15-game Collins sample. Still, the supplied tiers put Rice in tier 2 and Collins in tier 3, making the middle of Round 2 the spot where the top WR group empties. The Usage Report can help break ties within a tier.
Quarterback: Allen stands alone, but waiting remains viable
Josh Allen is the only tier 1 quarterback, with a 2.10 ADP, last season’s QB 1 rank and 22.8 PPR points per game. The next production-ranked quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, scored 19.9 and goes at 7.10. That is a 2.9-point fall, but nearly five rounds of draft cost separate them.
After Allen, the listed tiers extend through Patrick Mahomes at 9.04 and 20.4, Caleb Williams at 7.06 and 18.7, and Jaxson Dart at 10.05 and 17.3. Positional scarcity is the cost of waiting when one position’s remaining options are about to get worse; these prices suggest the urgent QB decision is Allen or patience, not forcing the middle.
Tight end: two cliffs, two plans
Trey McBride leads with 18.6 PPR points per game, ahead of Tucker Kraft’s 14.6 across 8 games. McBride costs 3.05; Kraft costs 10.01. That creates an early premium tier and a much later second entry point.
The sharper cliff comes after Dalton Kincaid, last season’s TE 4 at 10.5 with a 10.04 ADP. Isaiah Likely, TE 5, scored 5.1 and goes at 11.09. If Kincaid or Kraft is the final acceptable tight end on your sheet, act before that 5.4-point drop. Use the Anytime TD Board only as a same-tier tiebreaker.
How to use this: Mark each tier’s final player before drafting. Take the best option in the highest tier available, but switch positions when one of these tiers is one pick from disappearing.
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