Four Late-Round Swings Backed by 2025 Results

In this piece

Stefon DiggsWR · WASADP 8.03Tyler ShoughQB · NOADP 10.07

Late-round picks should buy plausible upside without making your starting lineup dependent on it. The goal is not to predict a league winner; it is to take several inexpensive swings, then move quickly when the evidence changes.

Start with the four-name dark-horse list

ADP, the average slot where a player is drafted, places all four targets in Round 8 or later. Stefon Diggs: 8.02, Josh Jacobs: 9.02, Deebo Samuel Sr.: 10.01 and Tyler Shough: 10.04 each provide a different reason to use a bench spot.

Jacobs and Diggs bring the clearest production argument. Samuel offers weekly volatility at a cheaper price. Shough is the late quarterback swing, with 14.4 PPR points per game across 11 games last season. Use the Draft Kit to compare these prices with the rest of your room rather than treating ADP as a command.

Jacobs and Diggs are production discounts

Value means paying a later 2026 price than a player's 2025 production suggests. Jacobs is being drafted 10 picks later than last season's production justifies after averaging 15.8 PPR points in 15 games. Diggs is going 8 picks later after averaging 12.4 across 17 games.

That comparison is explicitly between their 2026 draft prices and 2025 production. It does not mean either player was available at those discounts last year.

The uncertainty still matters. Jacobs' 2025 scoring, regressed toward the positional average for his 15-game sample, gives a descriptive range of 6.07 to 21.31 PPR points per game. Diggs' scoring, regressed for his 17-game sample, gives a range of 3.67 to 18.31. Those ranges are not 2026 forecasts; they show how widely last season's scoring could reasonably vary after regression.

Samuel and Shough require tolerance for misses

Boom/bust describes players who frequently land at either scoring extreme. Samuel scored 20-plus points in 25% of his 2025 games, but finished below eight in 44%. He also changed teams. At 10.01, that uneven profile is easier to carry as a reserve than as a required weekly starter.

Shough reached 20-plus in 27% of games and fell below eight in 27%. His 2025 scoring, regressed toward the quarterback average for an 11-game sample, produces a descriptive range of 8.21 to 20.53, not a forecast. That makes him a better fit for managers who wait at quarterback than those already paying for an early option.

Treat popularity as a prompt, not proof

Shough recorded 1688432 adds in the last day, the third-highest total on the supplied list. That movement says managers are investigating him; it does not prove his role or scoring will grow.

Check the Usage Report before holding any late pick through repeated quiet weeks. The Anytime TD Board can add context when considering touchdown-dependent options, but market prices should not replace actual involvement.

How to use this: Reserve two bench spots for dart throws, or three if your early picks give you dependable starters. Prioritize Jacobs and Diggs when they remain near ADP, use Samuel when you can absorb volatility, and consider Shough if quarterback remains open. Cut bait when usage fails to support the original case rather than waiting for the draft price to be vindicated.