Survivor Grid
Win probability for every team, every week. Weeks with a posted DraftKings line use that price directly; the rest are projected from each team's season win total. The column that matters is Cost Later — what spending a team this week does to your odds of surviving the weeks after it.
Week 4 briefing
Week 4 Survivor: BAL over TEN
Baltimore is the pick at 84.7%, based on a posted Week 4 line. Minnesota carries the same 84.7% posted-price win probability against Miami, but using BAL costs less down the road.
The reason: save MIN for Week 7. The current projection has Minnesota at 84.7% against MIA that week. Seattle also has more value later: its Week 4 home game against the Chargers is 74.8% from a posted line, while the model wants SEA available for Week 9, where it is currently projected at 74.8% against LAC.
Buffalo is the next available fallback at 72.2% over New England, also from a posted Week 4 line. That is a meaningful safety drop from BAL without a corresponding path advantage.
The working route from here:
• Week 4: BAL
• Week 5: DET — projected 63.1% vs CAR
• Week 6: LA
• Week 7: MIN — projected 84.7% vs MIA
• Week 8: CIN
• Week 9: SEA — projected 74.8% vs LAC
That full six-week path is projected at 29.2% to survive. Not pretty, but survivor math rarely is. This week, take the posted safety with Baltimore and preserve the better-timed Minnesota spot.
Best path from Week 4
survives all 6: 32.6%
BAL85%vs TEN-11.5
DAL81%vs TB-9.5
LA84%vs ARI-13.5
SF78%@ ATL-10.5
CIN86%vs TEN-14.8
SEA84%vs ARI-13.5Solved across the next 6 weeks so a team isn't spent early when it's worth more later. Beyond that the projections get too soft to plan around.
Week 4 board
| Team | Opponent | Spread | Win % | Pick % | EV | Cost later | Used |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALpick | vs TEN | -11.5 | 85% | 40.5% | 0.99 | 0.0% | |
 MIN | vs MIA | -10.5 | 83% | 37.4% | 0.97 | 0.6% | |
| SEA | vs LAC | -7.0 | 76% | 3.4% | 0.95 | 3.6% | |
 BUF | vs NE | -7.0 | 72% | 4.9% | 0.89 | 4.9% | |
 KC | @ LV | -4.5 | 66% | 0.9% | 0.83 | 7.0% | |
 GB | @ TB | -3.5 | 63% | 1.4% | 0.79 | 8.3% | |
 IND | @ WAS | -3.5 | 62% | 0.4% | 0.78 | 8.6% | |
 DET | @ CAR | -3.5 | 62% | 1.2% | 0.77 | 8.9% | |
 CHI | vs NYJ | -3.5 | 61% | 4.4% | 0.75 | 9.1% | |
| LA | @ PHI | -3.0 | 59% | 0.3% | 0.74 | 11.1% | |
 NO | vs ATL | -3.0 | 58% | 0.9% | 0.73 | 10.1% | |
| CIN | vs JAX | -2.5 | 57% | 0.2% | 0.72 | 11.8% | |
 PIT | @ CLE | -2.5 | 57% | 1.8% | 0.71 | 10.6% | |
| SF | vs DEN | -3.0 | 57% | 0.3% | 0.72 | 11.5% | |
 HOU | vs DAL | -2.5 | 56% | 0.1% | 0.71 | 10.9% | |
 ARI | @ NYG | -1.5 | 53% | 0.4% | 0.67 | 12.1% | |
 NYG | vs ARI | +1.5 | 47% | 0.7% | 0.58 | 14.6% | |
| DAL | @ HOU | +2.5 | 44% | 0.3% | 0.55 | 17.1% | |
 CLE | vs PIT | +2.5 | 43% | 0.1% | 0.54 | 16.1% | |
 DEN | @ SF | +3.0 | 43% | 0.0% | 0.54 | 16.1% | |
 JAX | @ CIN | +2.5 | 43% | 0.1% | 0.54 | 16.1% | |
 ATL | @ NO | +3.0 | 42% | 0.1% | 0.52 | 16.5% | |
 PHI | vs LA | +3.0 | 41% | 0.1% | 0.51 | 16.9% | |
 NYJ | @ CHI | +3.5 | 39% | 0.0% | 0.49 | 17.6% | |
 CAR | vs DET | +3.5 | 38% | 0.0% | 0.48 | 17.8% | |
 WAS | vs IND | +3.5 | 38% | 0.1% | 0.47 | 18.1% | |
 TB | vs GB | +3.5 | 37% | 0.1% | 0.46 | 18.4% | |
 LV | vs KC | +4.5 | 34% | 0.0% | 0.42 | 19.6% | |
 NE | @ BUF | +7.0 | 28% | 0.0% | 0.35 | 21.7% | |
 LAC | @ SEA | +7.0 | 24% | 0.0% | 0.30 | 23.4% | |
 MIA | @ MIN | +10.5 | 17% | 0.0% | 0.21 | 26.1% | |
 TEN | @ BAL | +11.5 | 15% | 0.0% | 0.19 | 26.7% |
- 85%BALpickvs TEN · -11.5
- Pick
- 40.5%
- EV
- 0.99
- Cost later
- 0.0%
- 83%MINvs MIA · -10.5
- Pick
- 37.4%
- EV
- 0.97
- Cost later
- 0.6%
- 76%SEAvs LAC · -7.0
- Pick
- 3.4%
- EV
- 0.95
- Cost later
- 3.6%
- 72%BUFvs NE · -7.0
- Pick
- 4.9%
- EV
- 0.89
- Cost later
- 4.9%
- 66%KC@ LV · -4.5
- Pick
- 0.9%
- EV
- 0.83
- Cost later
- 7.0%
- 63%GB@ TB · -3.5
- Pick
- 1.4%
- EV
- 0.79
- Cost later
- 8.3%
- 62%IND@ WAS · -3.5
- Pick
- 0.4%
- EV
- 0.78
- Cost later
- 8.6%
- 62%DET@ CAR · -3.5
- Pick
- 1.2%
- EV
- 0.77
- Cost later
- 8.9%
- 61%CHIvs NYJ · -3.5
- Pick
- 4.4%
- EV
- 0.75
- Cost later
- 9.1%
- 59%LA@ PHI · -3.0
- Pick
- 0.3%
- EV
- 0.74
- Cost later
- 11.1%
- 58%NOvs ATL · -3.0
- Pick
- 0.9%
- EV
- 0.73
- Cost later
- 10.1%
- 57%CINvs JAX · -2.5
- Pick
- 0.2%
- EV
- 0.72
- Cost later
- 11.8%
- 57%PIT@ CLE · -2.5
- Pick
- 1.8%
- EV
- 0.71
- Cost later
- 10.6%
- 57%SFvs DEN · -3.0
- Pick
- 0.3%
- EV
- 0.72
- Cost later
- 11.5%
- 56%HOUvs DAL · -2.5
- Pick
- 0.1%
- EV
- 0.71
- Cost later
- 10.9%
- 53%ARI@ NYG · -1.5
- Pick
- 0.4%
- EV
- 0.67
- Cost later
- 12.1%
- 47%NYGvs ARI · +1.5
- Pick
- 0.7%
- EV
- 0.58
- Cost later
- 14.6%
- 44%DAL@ HOU · +2.5
- Pick
- 0.3%
- EV
- 0.55
- Cost later
- 17.1%
- 43%CLEvs PIT · +2.5
- Pick
- 0.1%
- EV
- 0.54
- Cost later
- 16.1%
- 43%DEN@ SF · +3.0
- Pick
- 0.0%
- EV
- 0.54
- Cost later
- 16.1%
- 43%JAX@ CIN · +2.5
- Pick
- 0.1%
- EV
- 0.54
- Cost later
- 16.1%
- 42%ATL@ NO · +3.0
- Pick
- 0.1%
- EV
- 0.52
- Cost later
- 16.5%
- 41%PHIvs LA · +3.0
- Pick
- 0.1%
- EV
- 0.51
- Cost later
- 16.9%
- 39%NYJ@ CHI · +3.5
- Pick
- 0.0%
- EV
- 0.49
- Cost later
- 17.6%
- 38%CARvs DET · +3.5
- Pick
- 0.0%
- EV
- 0.48
- Cost later
- 17.8%
- 38%WASvs IND · +3.5
- Pick
- 0.1%
- EV
- 0.47
- Cost later
- 18.1%
- 37%TBvs GB · +3.5
- Pick
- 0.1%
- EV
- 0.46
- Cost later
- 18.4%
- 34%LVvs KC · +4.5
- Pick
- 0.0%
- EV
- 0.42
- Cost later
- 19.6%
- 28%NE@ BUF · +7.0
- Pick
- 0.0%
- EV
- 0.35
- Cost later
- 21.7%
- 24%LAC@ SEA · +7.0
- Pick
- 0.0%
- EV
- 0.30
- Cost later
- 23.4%
- 17%MIA@ MIN · +10.5
- Pick
- 0.0%
- EV
- 0.21
- Cost later
- 26.1%
- 15%TEN@ BAL · +11.5
- Pick
- 0.0%
- EV
- 0.19
- Cost later
- 26.7%
EV is your win probability against how much of the field is expected to survive the week — above 1.00 you gain ground on the average entry, below it you lose ground even when your team wins. That is why the biggest favourite is so often the wrong pick: the crowd is already there. Pick % via SurvivorGrid, averaged across several public pools.
Market power ratings
BUF+8.8SF+8.3KC+7.3SEA+6.5LA+6.3DEN+4.9BAL+4.8MIN+4.4DET+3.3PHI+3.0CIN+3.0NE+2.5CHI+2.5JAX+1.5LV+0.9DAL-0.2PIT-1.0GB-1.3NO-2.2LAC-2.2HOU-2.2WAS-2.8IND-3.0NYG-3.8ATL-3.8CAR-3.8NYJ-4.1CLE-4.6ARI-5.4TB-5.8TEN-10.3MIA-11.3Points better or worse than an average team, fitted so each club's projected wins match its posted season win total.