Draft the Last Tier Seat, Not the First Name After

In this piece

Puka NacuaWR · LAADP 1.04Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEAADP 1.07Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DETADP 1.07CeeDee LambWR · DALADP 1.10Justin JeffersonWR · MINADP 1.11Jeremiyah LoveRB · ARIADP 3.04Brock BowersTE · LVADP 3.09Ladd McConkeyWR · LACADP 4.01

A tier groups players with similar expected draft utility; the key is knowing when that group is nearly gone. Average draft position, or ADP, is the typical pick where a player goes, and it helps identify whether you can wait one more round without crossing a production cliff.

The first-round receiver break

Last season’s scoring shows a clear opening-round divide. Puka Nacua averaged 23.4 PPR points per game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored 21.2, and Ja’Marr Chase delivered 19.6; all three sit in the first receiver tier at ADPs of 1.04, 1.06, and 1.03.

Amon-Ra St. Brown follows at 1.07 after scoring 19.1 per game, but CeeDee Lamb is next in the draft sequence at 1.10 after 15.5. That is a 3.6-point fall from St. Brown’s 2025 rate. Justin Jefferson, priced at 1.11, scored 11.9 and sits in the fifth tier.

The practical read is not that every earlier receiver must be selected. It is that managers wanting last season’s upper-end receiver scoring should watch the first seven picks closely in the Draft Kit.

Price can create a second shelf

Value means comparing a player’s 2026 draft price against his 2025 production. Wan’Dale Robinson, at 8.02, is being drafted 26 picks later than last season’s production justifies after averaging 13.6 points across 16 games. Quentin Johnston scored 13.2 across 13 games and goes at 8.04, 21 picks later than his 2025 production justifies.

On the expensive side, DJ Moore goes at 4.12, 18 picks earlier than his 10.1-point 2025 production justifies. Ladd McConkey, at 4.02, is priced 14 picks earlier than his 11.3-point production justifies.

That creates a useful response to an empty early receiver tier: do not automatically select the first receiver below it. Compare the available names with the later shelf using the Usage Report.

Some tier alarms are false

Quarterback prices show why tier labels and draft timing must be read together. Drake Maye scored 20.7 per game in 17 games and costs 5.03. The same second tier includes Matthew Stafford, who scored 20.6 in 17 games at 7.03, and Trevor Lawrence, who scored 19.9 in 17 games at 8.07.

Tight end offers another waiting lane. Brock Bowers scored 14.7 at an ADP of 3.10, while fellow second-tier options George Kittle and Tucker Kraft scored 14.7 and 14.6 at 8.02 and 9.09. Positional scarcity, meaning fewer acceptable options at one position, matters only when those later names are actually leaving the board. The Anytime TD Board can serve as a final tiebreaker, not a reason to force the position.

Rookie prices are projection-only tiers

Rookies have no NFL sample, so their prices reflect projection rather than prior NFL production. Jeremiyah Love costs 3.04, while Jadarian Price goes at 5.11. At receiver, Carnell Tate carries a 7.06 ADP, compared with KC Concepcion at 10.10 and De’Zhaun Stribling at 11.05.

Treat those gaps as market confidence, not proven scoring cliffs. A rookie tier about to empty may justify acting, but it cannot be validated against 2025 NFL points.

How to use this: Before each pick, count the remaining players in your current tier and compare that number with the picks before your next turn. Move now when the tier will likely empty; otherwise, take the position where the drop is already visible.